Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US military strike on Cuba by December 31 at 33%, the leading outcome, driven by President Trump's March 27 speech declaring "Cuba is next" while touting US intervention successes in Venezuela, where forces captured Nicolas Maduro in January. This rhetoric follows months of intensified sanctions, including an oil blockade that triggered nationwide blackouts and economic collapse, prompting Cuba's April 3 announcement of its largest prisoner amnesty in a decade amid US pressure. However, a top US general stated on March 19 that no invasion preparations are underway, Trump allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba on March 30, and Democratic lawmakers introduced measures on March 26 to block funding for action. Absent major provocations like military escalation or refugee surges, near-term strike odds remain low, with backchannel diplomacy ongoing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Ataque de EEUU a Cuba por...?
¿Ataque de EEUU a Cuba por...?
$3,014,634 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
33%
$3,014,634 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$835,529 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US military strike on Cuba by December 31 at 33%, the leading outcome, driven by President Trump's March 27 speech declaring "Cuba is next" while touting US intervention successes in Venezuela, where forces captured Nicolas Maduro in January. This rhetoric follows months of intensified sanctions, including an oil blockade that triggered nationwide blackouts and economic collapse, prompting Cuba's April 3 announcement of its largest prisoner amnesty in a decade amid US pressure. However, a top US general stated on March 19 that no invasion preparations are underway, Trump allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba on March 30, and Democratic lawmakers introduced measures on March 26 to block funding for action. Absent major provocations like military escalation or refugee surges, near-term strike odds remain low, with backchannel diplomacy ongoing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volumen
$3,014,634Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US military strike on Cuba by December 31 at 33%, the leading outcome, driven by President Trump's March 27 speech declaring "Cuba is next" while touting US intervention successes in Venezuela, where forces captured Nicolas Maduro in January. This rhetoric follows months of intensified sanctions, including an oil blockade that triggered nationwide blackouts and economic collapse, prompting Cuba's April 3 announcement of its largest prisoner amnesty in a decade amid US pressure. However, a top US general stated on March 19 that no invasion preparations are underway, Trump allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba on March 30, and Democratic lawmakers introduced measures on March 26 to block funding for action. Absent major provocations like military escalation or refugee surges, near-term strike odds remain low, with backchannel diplomacy ongoing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$3,014,634Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US military strike on Cuba by December 31 at 33%, the leading outcome, driven by President Trump's March 27 speech declaring "Cuba is next" while touting US intervention successes in Venezuela, where forces captured Nicolas Maduro in January. This rhetoric follows months of intensified sanctions, including an oil blockade that triggered nationwide blackouts and economic collapse, prompting Cuba's April 3 announcement of its largest prisoner amnesty in a decade amid US pressure. However, a top US general stated on March 19 that no invasion preparations are underway, Trump allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba on March 30, and Democratic lawmakers introduced measures on March 26 to block funding for action. Absent major provocations like military escalation or refugee surges, near-term strike odds remain low, with backchannel diplomacy ongoing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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