Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth as a tight race, with 3.0–3.5% holding a slim 23.5% implied probability ahead of 2.5–3.0% (18.3%) and 1.0–1.5% (17.1%), reflecting mixed monthly data inputs. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast fell to 1.6% on April 2 after January trade data revealed a wider deficit, dragging net exports and offsetting private fixed investment gains; yet March nonfarm payrolls beat estimates at +178,000—strongest since December 2024—supporting personal consumption expenditures and labor contributions. Competitive dynamics hinge on final consumer spending, ISM services, and trade revisions; upcoming GDPNow update April 7 and BEA advance estimate near April 30 will be pivotal swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026
¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026
3,0–3,5% 27%
2.5–3.0% 18.3%
1.0–1.5% 15.0%
1,5–2,0% 13.9%
$233,982 Vol.
$233,982 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<1,0%
9%
1.0–1.5%
19%
1,5–2,0%
14%
2,0–2,5%
13%
2.5–3.0%
18%
3,0–3,5%
27%
≥3,5%
12%
3,0–3,5% 27%
2.5–3.0% 18.3%
1.0–1.5% 15.0%
1,5–2,0% 13.9%
$233,982 Vol.
$233,982 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<1,0%
$22,629 Vol.
9%
1.0–1.5%
$5,135 Vol.
19%
1,5–2,0%
$15,474 Vol.
14%
2,0–2,5%
$32,427 Vol.
13%
2.5–3.0%
$14,020 Vol.
18%
3,0–3,5%
$74,634 Vol.
27%
≥3,5%
$69,663 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth as a tight race, with 3.0–3.5% holding a slim 23.5% implied probability ahead of 2.5–3.0% (18.3%) and 1.0–1.5% (17.1%), reflecting mixed monthly data inputs. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast fell to 1.6% on April 2 after January trade data revealed a wider deficit, dragging net exports and offsetting private fixed investment gains; yet March nonfarm payrolls beat estimates at +178,000—strongest since December 2024—supporting personal consumption expenditures and labor contributions. Competitive dynamics hinge on final consumer spending, ISM services, and trade revisions; upcoming GDPNow update April 7 and BEA advance estimate near April 30 will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$233,982Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth as a tight race, with 3.0–3.5% holding a slim 23.5% implied probability ahead of 2.5–3.0% (18.3%) and 1.0–1.5% (17.1%), reflecting mixed monthly data inputs. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast fell to 1.6% on April 2 after January trade data revealed a wider deficit, dragging net exports and offsetting private fixed investment gains; yet March nonfarm payrolls beat estimates at +178,000—strongest since December 2024—supporting personal consumption expenditures and labor contributions. Competitive dynamics hinge on final consumer spending, ISM services, and trade revisions; upcoming GDPNow update April 7 and BEA advance estimate near April 30 will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$233,982Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth as a tight race, with 3.0–3.5% holding a slim 23.5% implied probability ahead of 2.5–3.0% (18.3%) and 1.0–1.5% (17.1%), reflecting mixed monthly data inputs. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast fell to 1.6% on April 2 after January trade data revealed a wider deficit, dragging net exports and offsetting private fixed investment gains; yet March nonfarm payrolls beat estimates at +178,000—strongest since December 2024—supporting personal consumption expenditures and labor contributions. Competitive dynamics hinge on final consumer spending, ISM services, and trade revisions; upcoming GDPNow update April 7 and BEA advance estimate near April 30 will be pivotal swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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