US-Iran conflict, ignited by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, has entered its sixth week with escalating military posturing. Recent US deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and special operations forces to the Middle East signal preparation for potential ground actions, particularly to secure Strait of Hormuz islands amid shipping disruptions. On April 4, an F-15 fighter jet was downed over Iran, prompting a US search for a missing airman that reportedly involved special forces entering Iranian territory for rescue—though unconfirmed if qualifying as market resolution. President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the strait heightens risks of further escalation, driving trader consensus toward eventual US ground entry by year-end while highlighting operational uncertainties and diplomatic off-ramps.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Las fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán por...?
¿Las fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán por...?
$122,803,701 Vol.
31 mar 2026
31 de marzo
<1%
30 de abril
100%
31 de diciembre
100%
$122,803,701 Vol.
31 de marzo
$73,761,689 Vol.
<1%
30 de abril
$35,808,509 Vol.
100%
31 de diciembre
$11,590,529 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran conflict, ignited by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, has entered its sixth week with escalating military posturing. Recent US deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and special operations forces to the Middle East signal preparation for potential ground actions, particularly to secure Strait of Hormuz islands amid shipping disruptions. On April 4, an F-15 fighter jet was downed over Iran, prompting a US search for a missing airman that reportedly involved special forces entering Iranian territory for rescue—though unconfirmed if qualifying as market resolution. President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the strait heightens risks of further escalation, driving trader consensus toward eventual US ground entry by year-end while highlighting operational uncertainties and diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volumen
$122,803,701Mercado abierto
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Disputado
Resultado propuesto: No
Disputado
Revisión final
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran conflict, ignited by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, has entered its sixth week with escalating military posturing. Recent US deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and special operations forces to the Middle East signal preparation for potential ground actions, particularly to secure Strait of Hormuz islands amid shipping disruptions. On April 4, an F-15 fighter jet was downed over Iran, prompting a US search for a missing airman that reportedly involved special forces entering Iranian territory for rescue—though unconfirmed if qualifying as market resolution. President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the strait heightens risks of further escalation, driving trader consensus toward eventual US ground entry by year-end while highlighting operational uncertainties and diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$122,803,701Mercado abierto
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Disputado
Resultado propuesto: No
Disputado
Revisión final
US-Iran conflict, ignited by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, has entered its sixth week with escalating military posturing. Recent US deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and special operations forces to the Middle East signal preparation for potential ground actions, particularly to secure Strait of Hormuz islands amid shipping disruptions. On April 4, an F-15 fighter jet was downed over Iran, prompting a US search for a missing airman that reportedly involved special forces entering Iranian territory for rescue—though unconfirmed if qualifying as market resolution. President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the strait heightens risks of further escalation, driving trader consensus toward eventual US ground entry by year-end while highlighting operational uncertainties and diplomatic off-ramps.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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