Trader consensus on the 2028 presidential election favors JD Vance at 19.7% implied probability, propelled by his selection as Donald Trump's running mate, positioning him as a frontrunner in a potential Republican post-Trump landscape if the GOP prevails in November. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17.4%, buoyed by his high-profile governorship and criticisms of Trump-era policies, appealing to Democratic base voters amid Kamala Harris's uncertain path. Marco Rubio's 11.9% reflects his Senate experience and Florida appeal. The tight race stems from 2024's unresolved outcome— a Trump win could consolidate GOP odds behind Vance or Rubio, while a Harris victory might elevate Newsom or Shapiro— with post-election cabinet roles, 2026 midterms, and early primary polling poised to create separation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028
Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028
JD Vance 19.7%
Gavin Newsom 17.4%
Marco Rubio 11.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$441,916,580 Vol.
$441,916,580 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Título del grupo: Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Título del ítem del grupo: Elon Musk
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 19.7%
Gavin Newsom 17.4%
Marco Rubio 11.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$441,916,580 Vol.
$441,916,580 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Título del grupo: Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Título del ítem del grupo: Elon Musk
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Mercado abierto: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on the 2028 presidential election favors JD Vance at 19.7% implied probability, propelled by his selection as Donald Trump's running mate, positioning him as a frontrunner in a potential Republican post-Trump landscape if the GOP prevails in November. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17.4%, buoyed by his high-profile governorship and criticisms of Trump-era policies, appealing to Democratic base voters amid Kamala Harris's uncertain path. Marco Rubio's 11.9% reflects his Senate experience and Florida appeal. The tight race stems from 2024's unresolved outcome— a Trump win could consolidate GOP odds behind Vance or Rubio, while a Harris victory might elevate Newsom or Shapiro— with post-election cabinet roles, 2026 midterms, and early primary polling poised to create separation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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