Recent polls position Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire as the narrow runoff favorite against conservative Rachida Dati in Paris's 2026 mayoral contest, driving 61% trader odds for a Grégoire victory under 5% and 22% for 5-10%, with Dati's outright win at 16%. Leading surveys from IFOP and Elabe show Grégoire ahead 26-29% to Dati's 23-25% in first-round projections, bolstered by leftist endorsements including from incumbent Anne Hidalgo and potential tactical withdrawals by greens. Dati's consolidation of center-right support remains uneven amid Macron allies' fragmentation. These tight margins reflect historical Paris left dominance but underscore voter turnout risks, with first-round voting set for March 2026 as the pivotal catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEmmanuel Grégoire <5% 61%
Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10% 22%
Victoria de Rachida Dati 16%
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20% 2.0%
$129,808 Vol.
$129,808 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Emmanuel Grégoire 20%+
1%
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20%
2%
Emmanuel Grégoire 10–15%
2%
Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%
22%
Emmanuel Grégoire <5%
61%
Victoria de Rachida Dati
16%
Emmanuel Grégoire <5% 61%
Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10% 22%
Victoria de Rachida Dati 16%
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20% 2.0%
$129,808 Vol.
$129,808 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Emmanuel Grégoire 20%+
$14,360 Vol.
1%
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20%
$12,796 Vol.
2%
Emmanuel Grégoire 10–15%
$16,517 Vol.
2%
Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%
$27,144 Vol.
22%
Emmanuel Grégoire <5%
$32,470 Vol.
61%
Victoria de Rachida Dati
$26,521 Vol.
16%
The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volumen
$129,808Fecha de finalización
Mar 22, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volumen
$129,808Fecha de finalización
Mar 22, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls position Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire as the narrow runoff favorite against conservative Rachida Dati in Paris's 2026 mayoral contest, driving 61% trader odds for a Grégoire victory under 5% and 22% for 5-10%, with Dati's outright win at 16%. Leading surveys from IFOP and Elabe show Grégoire ahead 26-29% to Dati's 23-25% in first-round projections, bolstered by leftist endorsements including from incumbent Anne Hidalgo and potential tactical withdrawals by greens. Dati's consolidation of center-right support remains uneven amid Macron allies' fragmentation. These tight margins reflect historical Paris left dominance but underscore voter turnout risks, with first-round voting set for March 2026 as the pivotal catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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