Name: How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?
Start: 2025-01-10T19:00:59.126878Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the number of Senate votes required to confirm Hegseth as Secretary of Defense.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth receives less than 50 YEA votes, in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Secretary of Defense.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as U.S. Defense Secretary for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
  
If Hegseth is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “Yes”. 

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". 

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

<50 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth receives between 50 (inclusive) and 52 (inclusive)  YEA votes, in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Secretary of Defense.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as U.S. Defense Secretary for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.
  
If Hegseth is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”. 

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." 

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

50-52

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth receives between 53 (inclusive) and 55 (inclusive)  YEA votes, in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Secretary of Defense.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as U.S. Defense Secretary for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.
  
If Hegseth is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”. 

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." 

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

53-55

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth receives 56 or more YEA votes, in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Secretary of Defense.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as U.S. Defense Secretary for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.
  
If Hegseth is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”. 

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." 

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Pete Hegseth dejará de ser Secretario de Defensa antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.

If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Votarán 50 senadores “Sí” por el nominado de Trump para presidente de la Fed?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

¿El Partido Republicano usa la 'opción nuclear' para romper el filibusterismo antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

¿Kristi Noem fue destituida en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Kristi Noem fuera antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces he is resigning as a US Senator from Pennsylvania or otherwise ceases to be a US Senator from Pennsylvania for any length of time between November 14, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If John Fetterman announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from John Fetterman or the government of the US, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Fetterman fuera antes de 2027?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera por el Senado de Nebraska en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera por el Senado en Dakota del Sur en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será Chris Pappas el nominado demócrata para el Senado en New Hampshire?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera por el Senado de Idaho en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los demócratas la carrera por el Senado de New Hampshire en 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

¿Perderán los republicanos un escaño en el Senado de EE. UU. en algún estado que Trump gane en 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from November 14, 2025 through March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Seguirá Schumer siendo el líder de la minoría hasta el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Alguna legislatura estatal de EE. UU. vota sobre la secesión antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera por el Senado de Tennessee en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los demócratas la carrera por el Senado en Delaware en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Nebraska.

If no 2026 Nebraska Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Nebraska Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será Pete Ricketts el candidato republicano al Senado en Nebraska?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Naim Qassem dejará de ser secretario general de Hezbolá antes del 31 de marzo de 2026?

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Será exactamente 5 el número de miembros republicanos del Senado que se retiren en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los demócratas la contienda por el Senado de Minnesota en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

¿Ganará el Partido Demócrata el escaño de la Cámara de Representantes de NE-02?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

¿Mike Johnson dejará de ser presidente de la Cámara antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será Josh Turek el candidato demócrata al Senado en Iowa?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será Peggy Flanagan la candidata demócrata al Senado en Minnesota?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

¿Ganará el Partido Demócrata el escaño de la Cámara de NH-02?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será James Talarico el candidato demócrata al Senado en Texas?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

¿Será John Cavanaugh el nominado demócrata para NE-02?

On January 18, the Pentagon ordered the preparation of 1,500 Army soldiers for a possible deployment to Minnesota in response to ongoing unrest over ICE actions in the state (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-readies-1500-soldiers-possibly-deploy-minnesota-washington-post-reports-2026-01-18/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any active-duty U.S. military troops are deployed to Minnesota for any domestic mission by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Active-duty U.S. military troops refers to any active-component U.S. military personnel and reserve-component personnel when ordered to active duty, excluding all National Guard personnel. National Guard personnel will not qualify, even if federalized under Title 10. Military police serving on active duty in the U.S. military will qualify.

Deployed to Minnesota refers to the deployment, ordering, or authorization of U.S. troops to operationally execute a domestic mission in Minnesota. Pre-positioning, readying, or otherwise preparing troops for action in Minnesota, without deployment to execute a domestic mission, will not count. 

Any domestic mission refers to a deployment to or in the state of Minnesota to carry out a domestic mission outside of the routine scope of regular military operations, including but not limited to law enforcement, security support, or the protection of federal property. Routine military operations (e.g., training exercises, transit through Minnesota, or regular military staffing in Minnesota) will not qualify. A deployment or mobilization of troops already stationed in Minnesota for a qualifying purpose will qualify.

An official announcement from the US military or the federal government, within this market’s timeframe, of a qualifying deployment will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the deployment is scheduled to take place or any legal challenges it may face. This includes announcements stating that troops are authorized or ordered to execute a mission in Minnesota. 

Announcements that do not indicate granted mission execution authorization (e.g., prepositioning or preparation announcements) will not qualify. Announcements of conditional authorization for the deployment of troops that are contingent on future events, requests, or approvals, and that do not grant immediate authorization to execute a mission in Minnesota, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Military and the federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

¿Renunciará Mitch McConnell al Senado antes de que termine su mandato?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the US House and Senate pass the same government funding bill between market creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the bill must actually pass both chambers of Congress (the US House and the US Senate). Passage of separate or different bills will not qualify; it must be the same piece of legislation.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Nominará Trump a Kevin Warsh como el próximo presidente de la Fed?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Delaware.

If no 2026 Delaware Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Delaware Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será Chris Coons el candidato demócrata al Senado en Delaware?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Arkansas.

If no 2026 Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Arkansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será Hallie Shoffner la candidata demócrata al Senado en Arkansas?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be the Director of National Intelligence for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gabbard's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Tulsi Gabbard fuera antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la contienda por el Senado de Iowa en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera por el Senado de Arkansas en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

¿Ganará el Partido Demócrata el escaño de la Cámara de Representantes por NH-01?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

¿Será Stefany Shaheen la candidata demócrata para NH-01?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

¿Vacante en la Corte Suprema en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será Jeff Merkley el candidato demócrata al Senado en Oregón?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Mississippi U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera por el Senado en Misisipi en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la contienda por el Senado en Wyoming en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Colorado U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los demócratas la contienda por el Senado de Colorado en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Iran between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Iranian land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; the Iranian Law Enforcement Command is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces; all sub-branches of the Artesh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (including the Basij), and Law Enforcement Command are part of the Iranian Armed forces.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Enfrentamiento militar entre EE. UU. e Irán antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Tendrá el Partido Republicano exactamente 49 escaños en el Senado después de las elecciones de mitad de mandato de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

¿Será Annie Andrews la candidata demócrata al Senado en Carolina del Norte?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

<50
$40,465 Vol.
No

50-52
$6,074 Vol.
Yes

53-55
$15,564 Vol.
No

56+
$46,587 Vol.
No

Contexto del Mercado

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

Reglas

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

Contexto del Mercado

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

Acerca de

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

<50 $40,465 Vol.No

50-52$6,074 Vol.Yes

53-55$15,564 Vol.No

56+$46,587 Vol.No

Contexto del Mercado

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

Reglas

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

Contexto del Mercado

How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?

Acerca de

<50
$40,465 Vol.
No

50-52
$6,074 Vol.
Yes

53-55
$15,564 Vol.
No

56+
$46,587 Vol.
No