Brad Lander holds a commanding position in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 10th Congressional District, driven by recent polling that shows him ahead of incumbent Dan Goldman by 5 points among likely voters and by double digits in earlier surveys. Progressive endorsements from figures including Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senator Bernie Sanders have strengthened Lander’s grassroots support in this left-leaning district, where voters have favored change-oriented candidates in recent local contests. Goldman has responded with more than $1 million in personal spending and a pledge to match incoming donations, while securing backing from Governor Kathy Hochul, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and the United Federation of Teachers. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these dynamics, assigning Lander the highest implied probability while treating the race as competitive until primary day results are confirmed.