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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 54%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 6.3%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,699,984 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 54%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 6.3%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,699,984 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría

$21,955 Vol.

54%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$16,015 Vol.

18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel

$572,537 Vol.

6%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido

$557,208 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón

$242,951 Vol.

3%

Putin - Presidente de Rusia

$350,584 Vol.

2%

Ninguno antes de 2027

$9,948 Vol.

2%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia

$12,654 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania

$11,005 Vol.

1%

Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.

$203,744 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente de Francia

$67,140 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretario General del PCCh

$39,413 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente de Palestina

$57,592 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primer ministro español

$11,040 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela

$20,309 Vol.

1%

Newsom - Gobernador de California

$112,634 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia

$39,972 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria

$27,640 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía

$75,314 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia

$58,445 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil

$39,890 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte

$24,764 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Canciller alemán

$28,572 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México

$64,125 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente de Argentina

$34,532 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary's Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54% to exit power before 2027, driven by tightening polls ahead of the April 2026 parliamentary election amid economic pressures, EU fund disputes, and growing opposition unity following recent local election gains by challengers. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting the island's deepening economic crisis, widespread blackouts, mass migration, and speculation over post-Castro succession amid protests after Hurricane Rafael's impact in late October. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% faces sustained domestic protests, judicial reform backlash, and fragile coalition risks from the ongoing Gaza conflict and Hezbollah escalations, though no snap election is imminent. Lower odds for others like Keir Starmer or Vladimir Putin signal perceived stability until their next electoral cycles post-2027.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,699,984
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary's Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54% to exit power before 2027, driven by tightening polls ahead of the April 2026 parliamentary election amid economic pressures, EU fund disputes, and growing opposition unity following recent local election gains by challengers. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting the island's deepening economic crisis, widespread blackouts, mass migration, and speculation over post-Castro succession amid protests after Hurricane Rafael's impact in late October. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% faces sustained domestic protests, judicial reform backlash, and fragile coalition risks from the ongoing Gaza conflict and Hezbollah escalations, though no snap election is imminent. Lower odds for others like Keir Starmer or Vladimir Putin signal perceived stability until their next electoral cycles post-2027.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary's Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54% to exit power before 2027, driven by tightening polls ahead of the April 2026 parliamentary election amid economic pressures, EU fund disputes, and growing opposition unity following recent local election gains by challengers. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting the island's deepening economic crisis, widespread blackouts, mass migration, and speculation over post-Castro succession amid protests after Hurricane Rafael's impact in late October. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% faces sustained domestic protests, judicial reform backlash, and fragile coalition risks from the ongoing Gaza conflict and Hezbollah escalations, though no snap election is imminent. Lower odds for others like Keir Starmer or Vladimir Putin signal perceived stability until their next electoral cycles post-2027.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 25 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 54%, seguido de "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 54¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 54% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" ha generado $2.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?", explora los 25 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 54%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 54% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.