Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale's commanding lead in this R+16 leaning district. Rosendale, who briefly explored a Senate bid before recommitting to his House re-election, maintains a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Tom Winter in the latest polls, bolstered by superior fundraising, incumbency advantages, and consistent voter registration edges in the district. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Rosendale, or anomalous Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates in safe districts suggest low likelihood.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoMT-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MT-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale's commanding lead in this R+16 leaning district. Rosendale, who briefly explored a Senate bid before recommitting to his House re-election, maintains a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Tom Winter in the latest polls, bolstered by superior fundraising, incumbency advantages, and consistent voter registration edges in the district. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Rosendale, or anomalous Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates in safe districts suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale's commanding lead in this R+16 leaning district. Rosendale, who briefly explored a Senate bid before recommitting to his House re-election, maintains a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Tom Winter in the latest polls, bolstered by superior fundraising, incumbency advantages, and consistent voter registration edges in the district. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Rosendale, or anomalous Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates in safe districts suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Montana's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale's commanding lead in this R+16 leaning district. Rosendale, who briefly explored a Senate bid before recommitting to his House re-election, maintains a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Tom Winter in the latest polls, bolstered by superior fundraising, incumbency advantages, and consistent voter registration edges in the district. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Rosendale, or anomalous Democratic turnout surge, though historical base rates in safe districts suggest low likelihood.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes