Israel's airstrikes on major Iranian industrial and nuclear sites on March 27 have heightened escalation risks in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, which erupted with coordinated strikes on February 28 targeting Iran's military infrastructure. Iran retaliated immediately with missile barrages on Israel—killing civilians in densely populated areas—and US bases in Bahrain, UAE, and elsewhere, launching seven waves since early March amid degraded air defenses. Tehran rejected negotiations but issued demands including Strait of Hormuz control and reparations, while President Trump touted the campaign as reshaping the Middle East. Traders assess Iran's remaining missile stockpiles, Hezbollah coordination, and potential diplomatic off-ramps like ceasefire talks against further Israeli expansion.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$628,491 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 23
4%
March 27
99%
March 28
96%
March 29
85%
March 30
82%
March 31
82%
$628,491 Vol.
March 23
$319,805 Vol.
4%
March 27
$69,982 Vol.
99%
March 28
$8,938 Vol.
96%
March 29
$6,778 Vol.
85%
March 30
$3,544 Vol.
82%
March 31
$3,551 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's airstrikes on major Iranian industrial and nuclear sites on March 27 have heightened escalation risks in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, which erupted with coordinated strikes on February 28 targeting Iran's military infrastructure. Iran retaliated immediately with missile barrages on Israel—killing civilians in densely populated areas—and US bases in Bahrain, UAE, and elsewhere, launching seven waves since early March amid degraded air defenses. Tehran rejected negotiations but issued demands including Strait of Hormuz control and reparations, while President Trump touted the campaign as reshaping the Middle East. Traders assess Iran's remaining missile stockpiles, Hezbollah coordination, and potential diplomatic off-ramps like ceasefire talks against further Israeli expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$628,491Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's airstrikes on major Iranian industrial and nuclear sites on March 27 have heightened escalation risks in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, which erupted with coordinated strikes on February 28 targeting Iran's military infrastructure. Iran retaliated immediately with missile barrages on Israel—killing civilians in densely populated areas—and US bases in Bahrain, UAE, and elsewhere, launching seven waves since early March amid degraded air defenses. Tehran rejected negotiations but issued demands including Strait of Hormuz control and reparations, while President Trump touted the campaign as reshaping the Middle East. Traders assess Iran's remaining missile stockpiles, Hezbollah coordination, and potential diplomatic off-ramps like ceasefire talks against further Israeli expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$628,491Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
Israel's airstrikes on major Iranian industrial and nuclear sites on March 27 have heightened escalation risks in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, which erupted with coordinated strikes on February 28 targeting Iran's military infrastructure. Iran retaliated immediately with missile barrages on Israel—killing civilians in densely populated areas—and US bases in Bahrain, UAE, and elsewhere, launching seven waves since early March amid degraded air defenses. Tehran rejected negotiations but issued demands including Strait of Hormuz control and reparations, while President Trump touted the campaign as reshaping the Middle East. Traders assess Iran's remaining missile stockpiles, Hezbollah coordination, and potential diplomatic off-ramps like ceasefire talks against further Israeli expansion.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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