Trader confidence in Howard Lutnick remaining Commerce Secretary nominee or confirmed official through March 31 stands at 98.4% "No" probability, driven by his unchallenged status as a key Trump ally and major donor with no emerging scandals, opposition, or withdrawal signals. Recent developments include Lutnick's prominent role in the presidential transition team, alignment on trade policies like tariffs, and a Republican Senate majority (projected 53-47) favoring swift confirmations post-January 20 inauguration. Historical base rates show most cabinet nominees from winning parties confirmed within 60 days. Realistic risks—bipartisan senatorial holds during February hearings or unforeseen personal issues—remain low per market pricing, with no catalysts yet shifting sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$27,599 Vol.
$27,599 Vol.
Sí
$27,599 Vol.
$27,599 Vol.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader confidence in Howard Lutnick remaining Commerce Secretary nominee or confirmed official through March 31 stands at 98.4% "No" probability, driven by his unchallenged status as a key Trump ally and major donor with no emerging scandals, opposition, or withdrawal signals. Recent developments include Lutnick's prominent role in the presidential transition team, alignment on trade policies like tariffs, and a Republican Senate majority (projected 53-47) favoring swift confirmations post-January 20 inauguration. Historical base rates show most cabinet nominees from winning parties confirmed within 60 days. Realistic risks—bipartisan senatorial holds during February hearings or unforeseen personal issues—remain low per market pricing, with no catalysts yet shifting sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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