Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 16°C (99.8%) as Shanghai's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models including ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime maximum of 16°C amid partly cloudy conditions, light northerly winds around 10-15 km/h, and surface temperatures starting near 10°C this morning. A recent cold air mass from northern China, confirmed by CMA synoptic reports over the past 48 hours, has stabilized the atmosphere under high pressure, limiting solar heating and diurnal warming typical for late March. Historical March highs in Shanghai average 13-15°C, aligning with this outlook absent unusual advection. Realistic challenges—such as an unanticipated shift to southerly flow or urban heat island amplification—remain improbable (<0.2%), with hourly observations from Shanghai's Xujiahui station expected to confirm resolution by evening.