Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high of 10°C in Paris on March 26 at 49.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 9°C at 34.5%, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France showing daytime maxima in the 9-11°C range under persistent cool northerly airflow and scattered cloud cover. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours indicate minimal warming potential due to a shallow high-pressure ridge stabilizing temperatures below seasonal norms—Paris's March climatological average high is around 12°C—while ruling out extremes like 14°C or higher amid low solar insolation and light winds. Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, with new observational data from surface stations expected to refine probabilities as the date unfolds; official Météo-France advisories will inform final resolution based on verified airport measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 26?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 26?
10°C 50%
9°C 36%
11°C 11%
8°C 2.0%
$63,254 Vol.
$63,254 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
36%
10°C
50%
11°C
11%
12°C
2%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
1%
10°C 50%
9°C 36%
11°C 11%
8°C 2.0%
$63,254 Vol.
$63,254 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
36%
10°C
50%
11°C
11%
12°C
2%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high of 10°C in Paris on March 26 at 49.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 9°C at 34.5%, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France showing daytime maxima in the 9-11°C range under persistent cool northerly airflow and scattered cloud cover. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours indicate minimal warming potential due to a shallow high-pressure ridge stabilizing temperatures below seasonal norms—Paris's March climatological average high is around 12°C—while ruling out extremes like 14°C or higher amid low solar insolation and light winds. Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, with new observational data from surface stations expected to refine probabilities as the date unfolds; official Météo-France advisories will inform final resolution based on verified airport measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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