Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a high temperature of 17°C in Madrid on March 26, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs showing a daytime maximum capped by a stable high-pressure ridge and cool northeasterly flows limiting warming. Observational data from Barajas Airport station this morning aligns with early peaks around 15°C under partly cloudy skies, with diurnal heating constrained by low sun angles typical for late March latitude. Historical March highs in Madrid average 16-18°C, and current soundings indicate minimal convective potential for breakthroughs. Scenarios challenging this include an unforeseen southerly wind shift or clear-sky surge, though ensemble forecasts assign under 1% probability, with final hourly data expected by evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
17°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
$213,530 Vol.
$213,530 Vol.
Mar 26, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
$213,530 Vol.
$213,530 Vol.
Mar 26, 2026
15°C or below
$21,877 Vol.
No
16°C
$15,654 Vol.
No
17°C
$17,192 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$31,260 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,824 Vol.
No
20°C
$9,676 Vol.
No
21°C
$23,110 Vol.
No
22°C
$4,918 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,246 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,480 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$74,292 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a high temperature of 17°C in Madrid on March 26, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs showing a daytime maximum capped by a stable high-pressure ridge and cool northeasterly flows limiting warming. Observational data from Barajas Airport station this morning aligns with early peaks around 15°C under partly cloudy skies, with diurnal heating constrained by low sun angles typical for late March latitude. Historical March highs in Madrid average 16-18°C, and current soundings indicate minimal convective potential for breakthroughs. Scenarios challenging this include an unforeseen southerly wind shift or clear-sky surge, though ensemble forecasts assign under 1% probability, with final hourly data expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Volumen
$213,530Fecha de finalización
Mar 26, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a high temperature of 17°C in Madrid on March 26, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs showing a daytime maximum capped by a stable high-pressure ridge and cool northeasterly flows limiting warming. Observational data from Barajas Airport station this morning aligns with early peaks around 15°C under partly cloudy skies, with diurnal heating constrained by low sun angles typical for late March latitude. Historical March highs in Madrid average 16-18°C, and current soundings indicate minimal convective potential for breakthroughs. Scenarios challenging this include an unforeseen southerly wind shift or clear-sky surge, though ensemble forecasts assign under 1% probability, with final hourly data expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$213,530Fecha de finalización
Mar 26, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a high temperature of 17°C in Madrid on March 26, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs showing a daytime maximum capped by a stable high-pressure ridge and cool northeasterly flows limiting warming. Observational data from Barajas Airport station this morning aligns with early peaks around 15°C under partly cloudy skies, with diurnal heating constrained by low sun angles typical for late March latitude. Historical March highs in Madrid average 16-18°C, and current soundings indicate minimal convective potential for breakthroughs. Scenarios challenging this include an unforeseen southerly wind shift or clear-sky surge, though ensemble forecasts assign under 1% probability, with final hourly data expected by evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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