Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's March 28 high temperature, with ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF clustering outcomes around 72-77°F amid variable spring conditions. Recent developments include a departing weak cold front on March 26-27 that cooled early-week highs to the upper 60s, followed by high-pressure ridging rebuilding over Texas, boosting model-implied highs into the mid-70s per the 12Z runs yesterday. Differentiating factors include lingering cloud cover potential from Gulf moisture versus clearer skies under zonal flow aloft, with slight model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and afternoon heating. Daily NWS updates at 8 AM and 4 PM CDT today will refine probabilities ahead of evening peak heating. Historical March climatology averages 75°F, aligning with current trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on March 28?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 28?
78-79°F 23%
74-75°F 22%
76-77°F 22%
72-73°F 21%
$10,774 Vol.
$10,774 Vol.
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
78-79°F 23%
74-75°F 22%
76-77°F 22%
72-73°F 21%
$10,774 Vol.
$10,774 Vol.
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's March 28 high temperature, with ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF clustering outcomes around 72-77°F amid variable spring conditions. Recent developments include a departing weak cold front on March 26-27 that cooled early-week highs to the upper 60s, followed by high-pressure ridging rebuilding over Texas, boosting model-implied highs into the mid-70s per the 12Z runs yesterday. Differentiating factors include lingering cloud cover potential from Gulf moisture versus clearer skies under zonal flow aloft, with slight model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and afternoon heating. Daily NWS updates at 8 AM and 4 PM CDT today will refine probabilities ahead of evening peak heating. Historical March climatology averages 75°F, aligning with current trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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