Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa's strong reelection bid in California's 21st Congressional District, combined with the district's D+5 partisan lean under new post-redistricting maps that favored Kamala Harris by six points, drives trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of a Democratic general election winner on November 3, 2026. The California Democratic Party certified candidate list released March 26 lists Costa alongside two fellow Democrats—Eric Garcia and Lourin Hubbard—against two lesser-known Republicans, Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios, plus one no-party-preference candidate, heightening odds of a top-two primary matchup yielding two Democrats on June 2. Cook Political Report rates the Central Valley seat Likely Democratic, reflecting Costa's 52.6% 2024 victory and thin GOP fundraising so far.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoCA-21 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-21 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
89%
Partido Republicano
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
89%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa's strong reelection bid in California's 21st Congressional District, combined with the district's D+5 partisan lean under new post-redistricting maps that favored Kamala Harris by six points, drives trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of a Democratic general election winner on November 3, 2026. The California Democratic Party certified candidate list released March 26 lists Costa alongside two fellow Democrats—Eric Garcia and Lourin Hubbard—against two lesser-known Republicans, Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios, plus one no-party-preference candidate, heightening odds of a top-two primary matchup yielding two Democrats on June 2. Cook Political Report rates the Central Valley seat Likely Democratic, reflecting Costa's 52.6% 2024 victory and thin GOP fundraising so far.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa's strong reelection bid in California's 21st Congressional District, combined with the district's D+5 partisan lean under new post-redistricting maps that favored Kamala Harris by six points, drives trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of a Democratic general election winner on November 3, 2026. The California Democratic Party certified candidate list released March 26 lists Costa alongside two fellow Democrats—Eric Garcia and Lourin Hubbard—against two lesser-known Republicans, Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios, plus one no-party-preference candidate, heightening odds of a top-two primary matchup yielding two Democrats on June 2. Cook Political Report rates the Central Valley seat Likely Democratic, reflecting Costa's 52.6% 2024 victory and thin GOP fundraising so far.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa's strong reelection bid in California's 21st Congressional District, combined with the district's D+5 partisan lean under new post-redistricting maps that favored Kamala Harris by six points, drives trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of a Democratic general election winner on November 3, 2026. The California Democratic Party certified candidate list released March 26 lists Costa alongside two fellow Democrats—Eric Garcia and Lourin Hubbard—against two lesser-known Republicans, Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios, plus one no-party-preference candidate, heightening odds of a top-two primary matchup yielding two Democrats on June 2. Cook Political Report rates the Central Valley seat Likely Democratic, reflecting Costa's 52.6% 2024 victory and thin GOP fundraising so far.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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