Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 88.5% to win California's 21st Congressional District House seat, reflecting strong expectations of a late Democratic surge in ongoing vote tabulation after incumbent Republican David Valadao took an early Election Night lead from election-day votes. Recent developments over the past 48 hours show the gap narrowing to under 3,000 votes with 94% counted, as mail-in, absentee, and provisional ballots from Democratic-leaning Central Valley areas like Fresno and Kern counties report higher Democratic margins. Historical patterns in California House races favor Democrats in late-counted ballots, bolstering trader confidence despite the tight race; a final certification is due by December 6, with any recount possible if the margin stays slim.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoCA-21 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-21 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
89%
Partido Republicano
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
89%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 88.5% to win California's 21st Congressional District House seat, reflecting strong expectations of a late Democratic surge in ongoing vote tabulation after incumbent Republican David Valadao took an early Election Night lead from election-day votes. Recent developments over the past 48 hours show the gap narrowing to under 3,000 votes with 94% counted, as mail-in, absentee, and provisional ballots from Democratic-leaning Central Valley areas like Fresno and Kern counties report higher Democratic margins. Historical patterns in California House races favor Democrats in late-counted ballots, bolstering trader confidence despite the tight race; a final certification is due by December 6, with any recount possible if the margin stays slim.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 88.5% to win California's 21st Congressional District House seat, reflecting strong expectations of a late Democratic surge in ongoing vote tabulation after incumbent Republican David Valadao took an early Election Night lead from election-day votes. Recent developments over the past 48 hours show the gap narrowing to under 3,000 votes with 94% counted, as mail-in, absentee, and provisional ballots from Democratic-leaning Central Valley areas like Fresno and Kern counties report higher Democratic margins. Historical patterns in California House races favor Democrats in late-counted ballots, bolstering trader confidence despite the tight race; a final certification is due by December 6, with any recount possible if the margin stays slim.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 88.5% to win California's 21st Congressional District House seat, reflecting strong expectations of a late Democratic surge in ongoing vote tabulation after incumbent Republican David Valadao took an early Election Night lead from election-day votes. Recent developments over the past 48 hours show the gap narrowing to under 3,000 votes with 94% counted, as mail-in, absentee, and provisional ballots from Democratic-leaning Central Valley areas like Fresno and Kern counties report higher Democratic margins. Historical patterns in California House races favor Democrats in late-counted ballots, bolstering trader confidence despite the tight race; a final certification is due by December 6, with any recount possible if the margin stays slim.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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