Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at a modest 1.5%–1.8% YoY with 36.5% implied probability, reflecting resilient January indicators after December's dip: Central Bank IBC-Br rose 0.8% MoM, industrial production surged 1.8% MoM, and retail sales edged up 0.4% MoM. This aligns with official forecasts like the Central Bank's 1.6% full-year 2026 projection and Finance Minister Haddad's up-to-1% Q1 QoQ view, amid 2025's slowdown to 2.3% under elevated Selic rates curbing demand. Downside risks priced at 19% for <0.7% stem from sticky inflation and fiscal strains, with February data and Q1-end March activity as key near-term catalysts ahead of IBGE's May release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 19%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,638 Vol.
$14,638 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
19%
0.7%–1.0%
10%
1.1%–1.4%
11%
1.5%–1.8%
37%
1.9%–2.2%
14%
2.3%–2.6%
14%
≥2.7%
10%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 19%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,638 Vol.
$14,638 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$13,163 Vol.
19%
0.7%–1.0%
$10 Vol.
10%
1.1%–1.4%
$5 Vol.
11%
1.5%–1.8%
$227 Vol.
37%
1.9%–2.2%
$63 Vol.
14%
2.3%–2.6%
$10 Vol.
14%
≥2.7%
$1,161 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at a modest 1.5%–1.8% YoY with 36.5% implied probability, reflecting resilient January indicators after December's dip: Central Bank IBC-Br rose 0.8% MoM, industrial production surged 1.8% MoM, and retail sales edged up 0.4% MoM. This aligns with official forecasts like the Central Bank's 1.6% full-year 2026 projection and Finance Minister Haddad's up-to-1% Q1 QoQ view, amid 2025's slowdown to 2.3% under elevated Selic rates curbing demand. Downside risks priced at 19% for <0.7% stem from sticky inflation and fiscal strains, with February data and Q1-end March activity as key near-term catalysts ahead of IBGE's May release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$14,638Fecha de finalización
May 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at a modest 1.5%–1.8% YoY with 36.5% implied probability, reflecting resilient January indicators after December's dip: Central Bank IBC-Br rose 0.8% MoM, industrial production surged 1.8% MoM, and retail sales edged up 0.4% MoM. This aligns with official forecasts like the Central Bank's 1.6% full-year 2026 projection and Finance Minister Haddad's up-to-1% Q1 QoQ view, amid 2025's slowdown to 2.3% under elevated Selic rates curbing demand. Downside risks priced at 19% for <0.7% stem from sticky inflation and fiscal strains, with February data and Q1-end March activity as key near-term catalysts ahead of IBGE's May release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$14,638Fecha de finalización
May 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth at a modest 1.5%–1.8% YoY with 36.5% implied probability, reflecting resilient January indicators after December's dip: Central Bank IBC-Br rose 0.8% MoM, industrial production surged 1.8% MoM, and retail sales edged up 0.4% MoM. This aligns with official forecasts like the Central Bank's 1.6% full-year 2026 projection and Finance Minister Haddad's up-to-1% Q1 QoQ view, amid 2025's slowdown to 2.3% under elevated Selic rates curbing demand. Downside risks priced at 19% for <0.7% stem from sticky inflation and fiscal strains, with February data and Q1-end March activity as key near-term catalysts ahead of IBGE's May release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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