The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $57.3 billion US trade deficit for February 2026 on April 2, up 4.9% from January amid rising imports and record exports, though less than forecasted widening, fueling trader caution on the full-year trajectory. With 2025's goods and services deficit closing at $901.5 billion despite initial Trump administration tariffs, year-to-date Q1 figures show a sharp 54.8% drop from prior year levels, yet persistent tariff turmoil and mixed policy impacts—yielding revenue but limited deficit reduction—keep odds bunched between 800–900B (35%) and 900B–1T (28%). Ongoing trade negotiations, March data release mid-April, and potential new executive actions on tariffs could tip the balance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$17,416 Vol.
$17,416 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
9%
500–600 Mrd.
7%
600–700 Mrd.
6%
700–800 Mrd.
12%
800–900 Mrd.
35%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
28%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
13%
1,1+ Billionen
15%
$17,416 Vol.
$17,416 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
$16,379 Vol.
9%
500–600 Mrd.
$0 Vol.
7%
600–700 Mrd.
$0 Vol.
6%
700–800 Mrd.
$0 Vol.
12%
800–900 Mrd.
$0 Vol.
35%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$635 Vol.
28%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
$0 Vol.
13%
1,1+ Billionen
$402 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $57.3 billion US trade deficit for February 2026 on April 2, up 4.9% from January amid rising imports and record exports, though less than forecasted widening, fueling trader caution on the full-year trajectory. With 2025's goods and services deficit closing at $901.5 billion despite initial Trump administration tariffs, year-to-date Q1 figures show a sharp 54.8% drop from prior year levels, yet persistent tariff turmoil and mixed policy impacts—yielding revenue but limited deficit reduction—keep odds bunched between 800–900B (35%) and 900B–1T (28%). Ongoing trade negotiations, March data release mid-April, and potential new executive actions on tariffs could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$17,416Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $57.3 billion US trade deficit for February 2026 on April 2, up 4.9% from January amid rising imports and record exports, though less than forecasted widening, fueling trader caution on the full-year trajectory. With 2025's goods and services deficit closing at $901.5 billion despite initial Trump administration tariffs, year-to-date Q1 figures show a sharp 54.8% drop from prior year levels, yet persistent tariff turmoil and mixed policy impacts—yielding revenue but limited deficit reduction—keep odds bunched between 800–900B (35%) and 900B–1T (28%). Ongoing trade negotiations, March data release mid-April, and potential new executive actions on tariffs could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$17,416Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $57.3 billion US trade deficit for February 2026 on April 2, up 4.9% from January amid rising imports and record exports, though less than forecasted widening, fueling trader caution on the full-year trajectory. With 2025's goods and services deficit closing at $901.5 billion despite initial Trump administration tariffs, year-to-date Q1 figures show a sharp 54.8% drop from prior year levels, yet persistent tariff turmoil and mixed policy impacts—yielding revenue but limited deficit reduction—keep odds bunched between 800–900B (35%) and 900B–1T (28%). Ongoing trade negotiations, March data release mid-April, and potential new executive actions on tariffs could tip the balance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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