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Economy·Makroindikatoren

BIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?

Market icon
Economy·Makroindikatoren

BIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?

Apr. 30

Jan. 29, 2027

Apr. 30

Jan. 29, 2027

2,5–3,0 % 26.3%

3,0–3,5 % 19%

2,0–2,5 % 16.0%

≥3,5 % 13%

Polymarket

$229,759 Vol.

2,5–3,0 % 26.3%

3,0–3,5 % 19%

2,0–2,5 % 16.0%

≥3,5 % 13%

Polymarket

$229,759 Vol.

<1,0 %

$21,636 Vol.

8%

1,0–1,5 %

$5,024 Vol.

14%

1,5–2,0 %

$14,617 Vol.

8%

2,0–2,5 %

$31,552 Vol.

16%

2,5–3,0 %

$13,754 Vol.

26%

3,0–3,5 %

$73,946 Vol.

19%

≥3,5 %

$69,229 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders' consensus prices a tight contest between 3.0–3.5% (27%) and 2.5–3.0% (26.3%) for Q1 2026 real GDP growth, reflecting divergent nowcasts amid softening investment signals. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow fell to 2.0% annualized as of March 23—down from 3.0% early March—after weak construction spending reduced private fixed investment projections from 3.1% to 1.2%, partially offset by steady personal consumption. The New York Fed nowcast holds at 2.1%, underscoring uncertainty. Q4 2025 GDP was revised to 0.7% on March 13. Key swing factors include today's retail sales and ISM manufacturing data, March nonfarm payrolls on April 4, and the BEA advance estimate late April, which could tip the balance on consumer resilience versus investment drag.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$229,759
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders' consensus prices a tight contest between 3.0–3.5% (27%) and 2.5–3.0% (26.3%) for Q1 2026 real GDP growth, reflecting divergent nowcasts amid softening investment signals. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow fell to 2.0% annualized as of March 23—down from 3.0% early March—after weak construction spending reduced private fixed investment projections from 3.1% to 1.2%, partially offset by steady personal consumption. The New York Fed nowcast holds at 2.1%, underscoring uncertainty. Q4 2025 GDP was revised to 0.7% on March 13. Key swing factors include today's retail sales and ISM manufacturing data, March nonfarm payrolls on April 4, and the BEA advance estimate late April, which could tip the balance on consumer resilience versus investment drag.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$229,759
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„BIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „2,5–3,0 %" mit 26%, gefolgt von „3,0–3,5 %" mit 19%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 26¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 26% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „BIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $229.8K generiert, seit der Markt am Dec 23, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „BIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 7 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „BIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?" ist „2,5–3,0 %" mit 26%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 26% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „3,0–3,5 %" mit 19%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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