Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 26.3% implied probability for US Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 2.5–3.0% band, closely trailed by 3.0–3.5% at 19.0% and 2.0–2.5% at 15.6%, reflecting tight competition amid mixed signals. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast fell to 2.0% as of March 23—down from 2.7% mid-month—driven by February's surprise nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment rising to 4.4%, tempering final demand estimates. Counterbalancing resilience appears in February ISM Services PMI at 56.1, signaling robust consumer spending, while manufacturing PMI held expansionary at 52.4. Key swing factors include forthcoming March ISM surveys, jobless claims, and the BEA's advance GDP release by late April, with historical base rates favoring mid-2% outcomes in softening labor conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?
BIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?
3,0–3,5 % 27%
2,5–3,0 % 26.3%
2,0–2,5 % 24.5%
≥3,5 % 14%
$229,832 Vol.
$229,832 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
<1,0 %
8%
1,0–1,5 %
9%
1,5–2,0 %
8%
2,0–2,5 %
16%
2,5–3,0 %
26%
3,0–3,5 %
27%
≥3,5 %
14%
3,0–3,5 % 27%
2,5–3,0 % 26.3%
2,0–2,5 % 24.5%
≥3,5 % 14%
$229,832 Vol.
$229,832 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
<1,0 %
$21,636 Vol.
8%
1,0–1,5 %
$5,024 Vol.
9%
1,5–2,0 %
$14,617 Vol.
8%
2,0–2,5 %
$31,552 Vol.
16%
2,5–3,0 %
$13,820 Vol.
26%
3,0–3,5 %
$73,946 Vol.
27%
≥3,5 %
$69,236 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 26.3% implied probability for US Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 2.5–3.0% band, closely trailed by 3.0–3.5% at 19.0% and 2.0–2.5% at 15.6%, reflecting tight competition amid mixed signals. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast fell to 2.0% as of March 23—down from 2.7% mid-month—driven by February's surprise nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment rising to 4.4%, tempering final demand estimates. Counterbalancing resilience appears in February ISM Services PMI at 56.1, signaling robust consumer spending, while manufacturing PMI held expansionary at 52.4. Key swing factors include forthcoming March ISM surveys, jobless claims, and the BEA's advance GDP release by late April, with historical base rates favoring mid-2% outcomes in softening labor conditions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$229,832Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 26.3% implied probability for US Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 2.5–3.0% band, closely trailed by 3.0–3.5% at 19.0% and 2.0–2.5% at 15.6%, reflecting tight competition amid mixed signals. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast fell to 2.0% as of March 23—down from 2.7% mid-month—driven by February's surprise nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment rising to 4.4%, tempering final demand estimates. Counterbalancing resilience appears in February ISM Services PMI at 56.1, signaling robust consumer spending, while manufacturing PMI held expansionary at 52.4. Key swing factors include forthcoming March ISM surveys, jobless claims, and the BEA's advance GDP release by late April, with historical base rates favoring mid-2% outcomes in softening labor conditions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$229,832Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 26.3% implied probability for US Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 2.5–3.0% band, closely trailed by 3.0–3.5% at 19.0% and 2.0–2.5% at 15.6%, reflecting tight competition amid mixed signals. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast fell to 2.0% as of March 23—down from 2.7% mid-month—driven by February's surprise nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment rising to 4.4%, tempering final demand estimates. Counterbalancing resilience appears in February ISM Services PMI at 56.1, signaling robust consumer spending, while manufacturing PMI held expansionary at 52.4. Key swing factors include forthcoming March ISM surveys, jobless claims, and the BEA's advance GDP release by late April, with historical base rates favoring mid-2% outcomes in softening labor conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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