Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.3-0.6%, reflecting subdued momentum after Office for National Statistics data showed flat monthly GDP in January—following 0.1% in December—amid three-month growth of just 0.2% to January. Sticky CPI inflation at 3.0% through February, driven by Middle East conflict-fueled energy price surges, tempers expansion expectations, aligning with OBR's 1.1% full-year forecast and economist calls near 0.3% quarterly. Bank of England Governor Bailey's April 1 remarks downplayed rate hikes, signaling cautious monetary policy. Upcoming February monthly GDP (mid-April) and Q1 preliminary estimate (late April) loom as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert0,3–0,6 % 43.2%
0,0-0,3 % 11%
0,9-1,2 % 9.7%
0,6–0,9 % 5.3%
$21,523 Vol.
$21,523 Vol.
Negativ
4%
0,0-0,3 %
11%
0,3–0,6 %
43%
0,6–0,9 %
5%
0,9-1,2 %
10%
1,2-1,5 %
1%
1,5–1,8 %
<1%
1,8 %+
1%
0,3–0,6 % 43.2%
0,0-0,3 % 11%
0,9-1,2 % 9.7%
0,6–0,9 % 5.3%
$21,523 Vol.
$21,523 Vol.
Negativ
4%
0,0-0,3 %
11%
0,3–0,6 %
43%
0,6–0,9 %
5%
0,9-1,2 %
10%
1,2-1,5 %
1%
1,5–1,8 %
<1%
1,8 %+
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.3-0.6%, reflecting subdued momentum after Office for National Statistics data showed flat monthly GDP in January—following 0.1% in December—amid three-month growth of just 0.2% to January. Sticky CPI inflation at 3.0% through February, driven by Middle East conflict-fueled energy price surges, tempers expansion expectations, aligning with OBR's 1.1% full-year forecast and economist calls near 0.3% quarterly. Bank of England Governor Bailey's April 1 remarks downplayed rate hikes, signaling cautious monetary policy. Upcoming February monthly GDP (mid-April) and Q1 preliminary estimate (late April) loom as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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