Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Seoul's highest temperature on March 27, with implied probabilities clustering around 14°C (28%), 15°C (24.5%), and 16°C or higher (20%), driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) models projecting daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius amid variable spring weather patterns. Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a mild southerly flow bringing warmer air, but persistent cloud cover and potential northerly gusts introduce divergence, tempering peaks above 16°C while ruling out sub-13°C outcomes. Historical March averages hover near 12–14°C, contextualizing the modest warming signal from current upper-air ridging. KMA's next advisory, expected within 24 hours, could sharpen resolution as observations refine model biases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Seoul am 27. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Seoul am 27. März?
14°C 26%
15°C 24%
16°C oder höher 20%
13°C 19%
$23,993 Vol.
$23,993 Vol.
6°C oder darunter
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
6%
12°C
9%
13°C
19%
14°C
26%
15°C
24%
16°C oder höher
20%
14°C 26%
15°C 24%
16°C oder höher 20%
13°C 19%
$23,993 Vol.
$23,993 Vol.
6°C oder darunter
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
6%
12°C
9%
13°C
19%
14°C
26%
15°C
24%
16°C oder höher
20%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Seoul's highest temperature on March 27, with implied probabilities clustering around 14°C (28%), 15°C (24.5%), and 16°C or higher (20%), driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) models projecting daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius amid variable spring weather patterns. Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a mild southerly flow bringing warmer air, but persistent cloud cover and potential northerly gusts introduce divergence, tempering peaks above 16°C while ruling out sub-13°C outcomes. Historical March averages hover near 12–14°C, contextualizing the modest warming signal from current upper-air ridging. KMA's next advisory, expected within 24 hours, could sharpen resolution as observations refine model biases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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