Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close uncertainty in Seoul's forecast models for March 29, with 17°C or higher at 30% implied probability edging out mid-teens outcomes around 20% each, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) ensemble predictions showing a mean high near 15-16°C amid variable spring patterns. Recent high-pressure ridging over the Korean Peninsula, evident in the past 48 hours' GFS and ECMWF updates, supports mild warmth from southerly flows, but lingering cold air pockets and cloud cover introduce downside risk toward 13-14°C. Historical March data averages 11-13°C highs, with anomalies this week tied to weakening East Asian monsoon influences; watch KMA's evening update for refined convective outlooks that could tip the balance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Seoul am 29. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Seoul am 29. März?
17°C oder höher 32%
14°C 20%
15°C 19%
16°C 19%
7°C oder niedriger
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
4%
11°C
4%
12°C
9%
13°C
12%
14°C
20%
15°C
19%
16°C
19%
17°C oder höher
32%
17°C oder höher 32%
14°C 20%
15°C 19%
16°C 19%
7°C oder niedriger
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
4%
11°C
4%
12°C
9%
13°C
12%
14°C
20%
15°C
19%
16°C
19%
17°C oder höher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close uncertainty in Seoul's forecast models for March 29, with 17°C or higher at 30% implied probability edging out mid-teens outcomes around 20% each, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) ensemble predictions showing a mean high near 15-16°C amid variable spring patterns. Recent high-pressure ridging over the Korean Peninsula, evident in the past 48 hours' GFS and ECMWF updates, supports mild warmth from southerly flows, but lingering cold air pockets and cloud cover introduce downside risk toward 13-14°C. Historical March data averages 11-13°C highs, with anomalies this week tied to weakening East Asian monsoon influences; watch KMA's evening update for refined convective outlooks that could tip the balance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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