Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 28, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles centering implied peaks near 19–20°C amid a 26% edge for 20°C and 23.5% for 19°C. Recent 24-hour updates from the China Meteorological Administration show stable upper-air patterns over the Yangtze River basin, featuring moderate southerly flow and partial cloud cover that caps daytime heating, differentiating lower outcomes like 18°C (17%) from slightly warmer 21°C (15%). Diurnal maximum timing around late afternoon, urban heat island effects in Chongqing, and minor model spread in boundary layer moisture explain the clustered probabilities above 17°C, while extremes remain unlikely per historical late-March norms averaging 18–19°C. New CMA advisories expected within 48 hours could refine odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
20°C 26%
19°C 19%
18°C 19%
21°C 14%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
19%
19°C
22%
20°C
26%
21°C
14%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
20°C 26%
19°C 19%
18°C 19%
21°C 14%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
19%
19°C
22%
20°C
26%
21°C
14%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 28, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles centering implied peaks near 19–20°C amid a 26% edge for 20°C and 23.5% for 19°C. Recent 24-hour updates from the China Meteorological Administration show stable upper-air patterns over the Yangtze River basin, featuring moderate southerly flow and partial cloud cover that caps daytime heating, differentiating lower outcomes like 18°C (17%) from slightly warmer 21°C (15%). Diurnal maximum timing around late afternoon, urban heat island effects in Chongqing, and minor model spread in boundary layer moisture explain the clustered probabilities above 17°C, while extremes remain unlikely per historical late-March norms averaging 18–19°C. New CMA advisories expected within 48 hours could refine odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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