Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 40-41°F (21.5%) and 42-43°F (21.0%) for Chicago's highest temperature on March 27, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting a high near 42°F amid a weak cold front. Major models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles show tight clustering in the low-to-mid 40s, with slight differentiation from cloud cover variability and northerly winds potentially capping peaks at 41°F versus brief sunny breaks allowing 43°F. Historical late-March norms average 44°F, but current upper-air patterns favor moderation below that, tempering odds for 44°F+ (13.9%) while low probabilities reflect slim risks of colder outbreaks or warm anomalies. Upcoming 12z model runs could shift implied probabilities further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
42-43°F 23%
40-41°F 22%
38-39°F 16%
44-45°F 13.6%
$16,176 Vol.
$16,176 Vol.
33°F or below
1%
34-35°F
5%
36-37°F
13%
38-39°F
16%
40-41°F
22%
42-43°F
23%
44-45°F
14%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
2%
52°F or higher
3%
42-43°F 23%
40-41°F 22%
38-39°F 16%
44-45°F 13.6%
$16,176 Vol.
$16,176 Vol.
33°F or below
1%
34-35°F
5%
36-37°F
13%
38-39°F
16%
40-41°F
22%
42-43°F
23%
44-45°F
14%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
2%
52°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 40-41°F (21.5%) and 42-43°F (21.0%) for Chicago's highest temperature on March 27, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting a high near 42°F amid a weak cold front. Major models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles show tight clustering in the low-to-mid 40s, with slight differentiation from cloud cover variability and northerly winds potentially capping peaks at 41°F versus brief sunny breaks allowing 43°F. Historical late-March norms average 44°F, but current upper-air patterns favor moderation below that, tempering odds for 44°F+ (13.9%) while low probabilities reflect slim risks of colder outbreaks or warm anomalies. Upcoming 12z model runs could shift implied probabilities further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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