U.S. intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and prefers unification without force if possible, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability of no invasion by June 30. This aligns with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since late February—the lowest monthly total since President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration—following large-scale "Justice Mission 2025" blockade simulations in December. Ongoing PLA leadership purges and economic headwinds further erode short-term invasion feasibility, despite continued cross-strait coercion, U.S. arms sales, and distractions from Middle East conflicts. Traders price in sustained deterrence via U.S.-Japan-Taiwan alignment, though escalation risks persist ahead of potential Xi-Trump diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2027-06-30
最新
最新
2027-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and prefers unification without force if possible, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability of no invasion by June 30. This aligns with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since late February—the lowest monthly total since President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration—following large-scale "Justice Mission 2025" blockade simulations in December. Ongoing PLA leadership purges and economic headwinds further erode short-term invasion feasibility, despite continued cross-strait coercion, U.S. arms sales, and distractions from Middle East conflicts. Traders price in sustained deterrence via U.S.-Japan-Taiwan alignment, though escalation risks persist ahead of potential Xi-Trump diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
交易量
$9,173结束日期
2027-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and prefers unification without force if possible, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability of no invasion by June 30. This aligns with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since late February—the lowest monthly total since President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration—following large-scale "Justice Mission 2025" blockade simulations in December. Ongoing PLA leadership purges and economic headwinds further erode short-term invasion feasibility, despite continued cross-strait coercion, U.S. arms sales, and distractions from Middle East conflicts. Traders price in sustained deterrence via U.S.-Japan-Taiwan alignment, though escalation risks persist ahead of potential Xi-Trump diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$9,173结束日期
2027-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and prefers unification without force if possible, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability of no invasion by June 30. This aligns with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since late February—the lowest monthly total since President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration—following large-scale "Justice Mission 2025" blockade simulations in December. Ongoing PLA leadership purges and economic headwinds further erode short-term invasion feasibility, despite continued cross-strait coercion, U.S. arms sales, and distractions from Middle East conflicts. Traders price in sustained deterrence via U.S.-Japan-Taiwan alignment, though escalation risks persist ahead of potential Xi-Trump diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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