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谁将在2025年率先离开特朗普内阁?

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谁将在2025年率先离开特朗普内阁?

分组项标题:2025 年的 None 100.0%

迈克·沃尔茨 <1%

斯蒂芬·米兰 <1%

J.D. Vance <1%

Polymarket

$1,044,482 交易量

分组项标题:2025 年的 None 100.0%

迈克·沃尔茨 <1%

斯蒂芬·米兰 <1%

J.D. Vance <1%

Polymarket

$1,044,482 交易量

迈克·沃尔茨

$17,386 交易量

斯蒂芬·米兰

$77,707 交易量

J.D. Vance

$321,435 交易量

马科·卢比奥

$27,525 交易量

斯科特·贝森特

$22,643 交易量

皮特·赫格塞斯

$62,130 交易量

帕姆·邦迪

$36,491 交易量

道格·伯格姆

$11,443 交易量

布鲁克·罗林斯

$24,799 交易量

Howard Lutnick

$20,272 交易量

洛里·查韦斯-德雷默

$14,398 交易量

罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.

$31,592 交易量

斯科特·特纳

$14,683 交易量

肖恩·达菲

$14,721 交易量

克里斯·赖特

$15,796 交易量

Linda McMahon

$12,004 交易量

道格·柯林斯

$18,828 交易量

克里斯蒂·诺姆

$57,119 交易量

分组项标题:2025 年的 None

$84,447 交易量

李泽尔丁

$16,255 交易量

Susie Wiles

$46,307 交易量

Tulsi Gabbard

$33,844 交易量

罗素·T·沃特

$14,208 交易量

约翰·拉特克利夫

$12,765 交易量

Jamieson Greer

$14,534 交易量

凯利·洛夫勒

$21,149 交易量

This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$1,044,482
结束日期
Dec 31, 2025
市场开放时间
Jul 21, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

已提议结果: 是

无争议

最终结果: 是

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"谁将在2025年率先离开特朗普内阁?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 26 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "分组项标题:2025 年的 None" at 100%, followed by "迈克·沃尔茨" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "谁将在2025年率先离开特朗普内阁?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "谁将在2025年率先离开特朗普内阁?," browse the 26 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "谁将在2025年率先离开特朗普内阁?" is "分组项标题:2025 年的 None" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "迈克·沃尔茨" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "谁将在2025年率先离开特朗普内阁?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.