Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for any countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, driven by the absence of official announcements or diplomatic breakthroughs from primary sources like UN statements or host nation declarations. Proposed as a multilateral forum for global conflict mediation—potentially hosted by a neutral actor—the initiative has sparked preliminary talks in international circles, but no verified invitations or accession processes have materialized. Recent developments include vague endorsements from mid-level diplomats at Davos sidelines, yet traders prioritize confirmed commitments amid geopolitical frictions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions could shift sentiment if resolutions advance membership talks, underscoring the market's sensitivity to verifiable diplomatic momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,837,571 交易量
印度
3%
俄罗斯
2%
巴西
2%
乌克兰
2%
巴勒斯坦
2%
英国
2%
意大利
2%
比利时
1%
德国
1%
瑞典
1%
挪威
1%
法国
1%
芬兰
1%
西班牙
1%
丹麦
1%
瑞士
1%
中国
1%
荷兰
<1%
$1,837,571 交易量
印度
3%
俄罗斯
2%
巴西
2%
乌克兰
2%
巴勒斯坦
2%
英国
2%
意大利
2%
比利时
1%
德国
1%
瑞典
1%
挪威
1%
法国
1%
芬兰
1%
西班牙
1%
丹麦
1%
瑞士
1%
中国
1%
荷兰
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间: Jan 20, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for any countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, driven by the absence of official announcements or diplomatic breakthroughs from primary sources like UN statements or host nation declarations. Proposed as a multilateral forum for global conflict mediation—potentially hosted by a neutral actor—the initiative has sparked preliminary talks in international circles, but no verified invitations or accession processes have materialized. Recent developments include vague endorsements from mid-level diplomats at Davos sidelines, yet traders prioritize confirmed commitments amid geopolitical frictions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions could shift sentiment if resolutions advance membership talks, underscoring the market's sensitivity to verifiable diplomatic momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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