Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 66.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6 topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior ELO scores in coding (2,002) and chat arenas (1,476) as of March 28, alongside a March 27 data leak revealing "Claude Mythos"—an unreleased model touted internally as dramatically outperforming Opus in reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 23.5%, excelling in GPQA (94.3%) but lacking a comparable near-term upgrade signal. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 6.5% amid stagnant recent capabilities, while xAI and others remain fringe. Watch for Mythos rollout, Gemini 4 previews, or OpenAI counters before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 66.5%
谷歌 24%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.7%
$2,884,596 交易量
$2,884,596 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
66%
谷歌
24%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
2%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
Anthropic 66.5%
谷歌 24%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.7%
$2,884,596 交易量
$2,884,596 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$567,860 交易量
66%
谷歌
$314,828 交易量
24%
OpenAI
$102,255 交易量
7%
xAI
$843,695 交易量
2%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$208,581 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$170,428 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$110,911 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$290,122 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$123,679 交易量
<1%
美团
$152,238 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 66.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6 topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior ELO scores in coding (2,002) and chat arenas (1,476) as of March 28, alongside a March 27 data leak revealing "Claude Mythos"—an unreleased model touted internally as dramatically outperforming Opus in reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 23.5%, excelling in GPQA (94.3%) but lacking a comparable near-term upgrade signal. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 6.5% amid stagnant recent capabilities, while xAI and others remain fringe. Watch for Mythos rollout, Gemini 4 previews, or OpenAI counters before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$2,884,596结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 66.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6 topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior ELO scores in coding (2,002) and chat arenas (1,476) as of March 28, alongside a March 27 data leak revealing "Claude Mythos"—an unreleased model touted internally as dramatically outperforming Opus in reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 23.5%, excelling in GPQA (94.3%) but lacking a comparable near-term upgrade signal. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 6.5% amid stagnant recent capabilities, while xAI and others remain fringe. Watch for Mythos rollout, Gemini 4 previews, or OpenAI counters before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$2,884,596结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 66.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6 topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior ELO scores in coding (2,002) and chat arenas (1,476) as of March 28, alongside a March 27 data leak revealing "Claude Mythos"—an unreleased model touted internally as dramatically outperforming Opus in reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 23.5%, excelling in GPQA (94.3%) but lacking a comparable near-term upgrade signal. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 6.5% amid stagnant recent capabilities, while xAI and others remain fringe. Watch for Mythos rollout, Gemini 4 previews, or OpenAI counters before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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