Anthropic's Claude models currently lead LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks, fueling trader consensus as the frontrunner for the #1 AI model by June 30 amid fierce competition from Google DeepMind and OpenAI. Recent March releases—Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 for superior reasoning and coding, Gemini 3.1 Pro's gains in multimodal tasks, OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants, and xAI's Grok 4.20—have kept leaderboards volatile, with positions flipping weekly on new evaluations. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects rapid iteration cycles, but uncertainties loom: model timelines frequently slip, compute constraints persist, and unannounced frontier large language models could reshape rankings before summer developer conferences.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,165,394 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
OpenAI
29%
xAI
16%
DeepSeek
8%
阿里巴巴
8%
Meta
6%
Z.ai
5%
百度
4%
Mistral
4%
英伟达
3%
美团
3%
$1,165,394 交易量
OpenAI
$337,577 交易量
29%
xAI
$537,589 交易量
16%
DeepSeek
$23,023 交易量
8%
阿里巴巴
$4,633 交易量
8%
Meta
$0 交易量
6%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
5%
百度
$1,906 交易量
4%
Mistral
$0 交易量
4%
英伟达
$0 交易量
3%
美团
$2,695 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude models currently lead LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks, fueling trader consensus as the frontrunner for the #1 AI model by June 30 amid fierce competition from Google DeepMind and OpenAI. Recent March releases—Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 for superior reasoning and coding, Gemini 3.1 Pro's gains in multimodal tasks, OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants, and xAI's Grok 4.20—have kept leaderboards volatile, with positions flipping weekly on new evaluations. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects rapid iteration cycles, but uncertainties loom: model timelines frequently slip, compute constraints persist, and unannounced frontier large language models could reshape rankings before summer developer conferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$1,165,394结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude models currently lead LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks, fueling trader consensus as the frontrunner for the #1 AI model by June 30 amid fierce competition from Google DeepMind and OpenAI. Recent March releases—Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 for superior reasoning and coding, Gemini 3.1 Pro's gains in multimodal tasks, OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants, and xAI's Grok 4.20—have kept leaderboards volatile, with positions flipping weekly on new evaluations. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects rapid iteration cycles, but uncertainties loom: model timelines frequently slip, compute constraints persist, and unannounced frontier large language models could reshape rankings before summer developer conferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,165,394结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude models currently lead LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks, fueling trader consensus as the frontrunner for the #1 AI model by June 30 amid fierce competition from Google DeepMind and OpenAI. Recent March releases—Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 for superior reasoning and coding, Gemini 3.1 Pro's gains in multimodal tasks, OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants, and xAI's Grok 4.20—have kept leaderboards volatile, with positions flipping weekly on new evaluations. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects rapid iteration cycles, but uncertainties loom: model timelines frequently slip, compute constraints persist, and unannounced frontier large language models could reshape rankings before summer developer conferences.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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