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特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?

Market icon

特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?

$14,992,479 交易量

2025-06-30
Polymarket

$14,992,479 交易量

Polymarket

6月30日

$242,902 交易量

分组项标题:10月31日

$431,981 交易量

12月31日

$1,086,303 交易量

2026年3月31日

$1,053,951 交易量

2026年6月30日

$12,177,341 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$14,992,479
结束日期
2025-12-31
市场开放时间
May 29, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$14,992,479
结束日期
2025-12-31
市场开放时间
May 29, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年3月31日",概率为 100%,其次是"2026年6月30日",概率为 100%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?"已产生 $15 million 的总交易量(自May 29, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?"的当前领先者是"2026年3月31日",概率为 100%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"2026年6月30日",概率为 100%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"特斯拉推出无监督全自动驾驶( FSD ) ,由... ?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。