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OpenAI宣布它已经在2027年之前实现了AGI ？

Market icon
科技·Llm

OpenAI宣布它已经在2027年之前实现了AGI ？

是

18% chance
Polymarket

$43,180 交易量

是

18% chance
Polymarket

$43,180 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders on Polymarket assign a 75.5% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, reflecting skepticism over the lab's rapid but incremental progress amid unresolved technical hurdles. OpenAI's recent o1 reasoning model, released in September 2024, excels on benchmarks like math and coding but falls short of AGI's broad human-level capabilities across all domains, as confirmed by independent evaluations. CEO Sam Altman's October interviews reiterated optimistic timelines around 2027-2028 while stressing scaling challenges and safety risks, with no internal leaks suggesting imminent breakthroughs. Ongoing talent shifts, including key departures, and compute constraints further temper expectations, though upcoming GPT-5 could catalyze shifts if it demonstrates superior generality.

Traders on Polymarket assign a 75.5% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, reflecting skepticism over the lab's rapid but incremental progress amid unresolved technical hurdles. OpenAI's recent o1 reasoning model, released in September 2024, excels on benchmarks like math and coding but falls short of AGI's broad human-level capabilities across all domains, as confirmed by independent evaluations. CEO Sam Altman's October interviews reiterated optimistic timelines around 2027-2028 while stressing scaling challenges and safety risks, with no internal leaks suggesting imminent breakthroughs. Ongoing talent shifts, including key departures, and compute constraints further temper expectations, though upcoming GPT-5 could catalyze shifts if it demonstrates superior generality.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders on Polymarket assign a 75.5% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, reflecting skepticism over the lab's rapid but incremental progress amid unresolved technical hurdles. OpenAI's recent o1 reasoning model, released in September 2024, excels on benchmarks like math and coding but falls short of AGI's broad human-level capabilities across all domains, as confirmed by independent evaluations. CEO Sam Altman's October interviews reiterated optimistic timelines around 2027-2028 while stressing scaling challenges and safety risks, with no internal leaks suggesting imminent breakthroughs. Ongoing talent shifts, including key departures, and compute constraints further temper expectations, though upcoming GPT-5 could catalyze shifts if it demonstrates superior generality.

Traders on Polymarket assign a 75.5% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, reflecting skepticism over the lab's rapid but incremental progress amid unresolved technical hurdles. OpenAI's recent o1 reasoning model, released in September 2024, excels on benchmarks like math and coding but falls short of AGI's broad human-level capabilities across all domains, as confirmed by independent evaluations. CEO Sam Altman's October interviews reiterated optimistic timelines around 2027-2028 while stressing scaling challenges and safety risks, with no internal leaks suggesting imminent breakthroughs. Ongoing talent shifts, including key departures, and compute constraints further temper expectations, though upcoming GPT-5 could catalyze shifts if it demonstrates superior generality.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"OpenAI宣布它已经在2027年之前实现了AGI ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"OpenAI宣布在2027年前已实现AGI？"，概率为 18%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 18¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 18%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"OpenAI宣布它已经在2027年之前实现了AGI ？"已产生 $43.2K 的总交易量（自Oct 28, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"OpenAI宣布它已经在2027年之前实现了AGI ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"OpenAI宣布它已经在2027年之前实现了AGI ？"的当前领先者是"OpenAI宣布在2027年前已实现AGI？"，概率为 18%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 18%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"OpenAI宣布它已经在2027年之前实现了AGI ？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。