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政治·主要

NY-13民主党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

NY-13民主党初选获胜者

阿德里亚诺·埃斯派拉特 64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%

奥斯卡·罗梅罗 4.3%

James Felton Keith 2.7%

Polymarket

$10,085 交易量

阿德里亚诺·埃斯派拉特 64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%

奥斯卡·罗梅罗 4.3%

James Felton Keith 2.7%

Polymarket

$10,085 交易量

阿德里亚诺·埃斯派拉特

$2,483 交易量

64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$1,119 交易量

29%

奥斯卡·罗梅罗

$2,838 交易量

4%

James Felton Keith

$706 交易量

3%

马特·米勒

$1,007 交易量

1%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$592 交易量

1%

贾利尔·阿马多

$568 交易量

<1%

梅根·罗德里格斯

$771 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a trader consensus lead at 64.5% implied probability in the NY-13 Democratic primary, driven by his established name recognition, fundraising edge, and January Congressional Black Caucus endorsement amid four challengers in the diverse Upper Manhattan and Bronx district. Progressive organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier trails at 29%, gaining traction from New York City DSA and Justice Democrats endorsements in late January, appealing to left-leaning voters in a area where progressives like Zohran Mamdani posted strong local margins. Espaillat's past primaries showed vulnerability, dipping below 60% in 2020, fueling chatter on his viability; the June 23 contest remains fluid absent public polls, with turnout among Latino and low-income blocs pivotal.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$10,085
结束日期
2026-06-23
市场开放时间
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a trader consensus lead at 64.5% implied probability in the NY-13 Democratic primary, driven by his established name recognition, fundraising edge, and January Congressional Black Caucus endorsement amid four challengers in the diverse Upper Manhattan and Bronx district. Progressive organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier trails at 29%, gaining traction from New York City DSA and Justice Democrats endorsements in late January, appealing to left-leaning voters in a area where progressives like Zohran Mamdani posted strong local margins. Espaillat's past primaries showed vulnerability, dipping below 60% in 2020, fueling chatter on his viability; the June 23 contest remains fluid absent public polls, with turnout among Latino and low-income blocs pivotal.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$10,085
结束日期
2026-06-23
市场开放时间
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"NY-13民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"阿德里亚诺·埃斯派拉特"，概率为 64%，其次是"Darializa Avila Chevalier"，概率为 29%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 64¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 64%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"NY-13民主党初选获胜者"已产生 $10.1K 的总交易量（自Dec 19, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"NY-13民主党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"NY-13民主党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"阿德里亚诺·埃斯派拉特"，概率为 64%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 64%。紧随其后的结果是"Darializa Avila Chevalier"，概率为 29%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"NY-13民主党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。