Preliminary reanalysis data from sources like ERA5 and Berkeley Earth indicate March 2026 global surface temperatures are tracking near 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus to 55% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC bin amid fading La Niña conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center update on March 12 forecasted a 55% chance of ENSO-neutral through May-July, removing prior cooling influences that suppressed February's 1.55°C anomaly (Berkeley Earth). Record sea surface temperatures and exceptional Northern Hemisphere heatwaves, including +4–5°C anomalies across North America, have boosted higher outcomes, while lower bins reflect historical spring baselines under neutral ENSO. Official Copernicus and NOAA bulletins, due early April, could refine these estimates as final observations incorporate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1.25–1.29ºC 55.1%
1.20–1.24ºC 27%
>1.29ºC 12.6%
1.15–1.19ºC 6%
$214,440 交易量
$214,440 交易量
2026-04-10
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
6%
1.20–1.24ºC
27%
1.25–1.29ºC
55%
>1.29ºC
13%
1.25–1.29ºC 55.1%
1.20–1.24ºC 27%
>1.29ºC 12.6%
1.15–1.19ºC 6%
$214,440 交易量
$214,440 交易量
2026-04-10
<1.10ºC
$28,419 交易量
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$26,892 交易量
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$52,713 交易量
6%
1.20–1.24ºC
$38,594 交易量
27%
1.25–1.29ºC
$26,001 交易量
55%
>1.29ºC
$41,821 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary reanalysis data from sources like ERA5 and Berkeley Earth indicate March 2026 global surface temperatures are tracking near 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus to 55% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC bin amid fading La Niña conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center update on March 12 forecasted a 55% chance of ENSO-neutral through May-July, removing prior cooling influences that suppressed February's 1.55°C anomaly (Berkeley Earth). Record sea surface temperatures and exceptional Northern Hemisphere heatwaves, including +4–5°C anomalies across North America, have boosted higher outcomes, while lower bins reflect historical spring baselines under neutral ENSO. Official Copernicus and NOAA bulletins, due early April, could refine these estimates as final observations incorporate.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$214,440结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary reanalysis data from sources like ERA5 and Berkeley Earth indicate March 2026 global surface temperatures are tracking near 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus to 55% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC bin amid fading La Niña conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center update on March 12 forecasted a 55% chance of ENSO-neutral through May-July, removing prior cooling influences that suppressed February's 1.55°C anomaly (Berkeley Earth). Record sea surface temperatures and exceptional Northern Hemisphere heatwaves, including +4–5°C anomalies across North America, have boosted higher outcomes, while lower bins reflect historical spring baselines under neutral ENSO. Official Copernicus and NOAA bulletins, due early April, could refine these estimates as final observations incorporate.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$214,440结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary reanalysis data from sources like ERA5 and Berkeley Earth indicate March 2026 global surface temperatures are tracking near 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus to 55% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC bin amid fading La Niña conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center update on March 12 forecasted a 55% chance of ENSO-neutral through May-July, removing prior cooling influences that suppressed February's 1.55°C anomaly (Berkeley Earth). Record sea surface temperatures and exceptional Northern Hemisphere heatwaves, including +4–5°C anomalies across North America, have boosted higher outcomes, while lower bins reflect historical spring baselines under neutral ENSO. Official Copernicus and NOAA bulletins, due early April, could refine these estimates as final observations incorporate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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