SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past week indicating an imminent filing of its prospectus—potentially this week—for a mid-June listing targeting a record $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and $50–75 billion raise, fueled by Starship progress, Starlink expansion, and its February acquisition of xAI to bolster orbital AI computing ambitions. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering sentiment around its pre-merger standalone potential amid debt buybacks, though integration diminishes prospects. Anthropic (4.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail on recent considerations for Q4 listings at sub-$400 billion valuations, with lower revenue scale versus SpaceX's projected $22–24 billion. Watch for SpaceX's April investor roadshow as the next catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.2%
OpenAI 4.0%
Kraken <1%
$1,620,250 交易量
$1,620,250 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
Anthropic
4%
OpenAI
4%
Kraken
1%
Discord
1%
Stripe
1%
Databricks
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.2%
OpenAI 4.0%
Kraken <1%
$1,620,250 交易量
$1,620,250 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$179,487 交易量
90%
Anthropic
$342,359 交易量
4%
OpenAI
$295,209 交易量
4%
Kraken
$373,016 交易量
1%
Discord
$67,669 交易量
1%
Stripe
$37,268 交易量
1%
Databricks
$67,252 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$84,069 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$53,043 交易量
<1%
Waymo
$44,232 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$24,806 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$51,842 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past week indicating an imminent filing of its prospectus—potentially this week—for a mid-June listing targeting a record $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and $50–75 billion raise, fueled by Starship progress, Starlink expansion, and its February acquisition of xAI to bolster orbital AI computing ambitions. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering sentiment around its pre-merger standalone potential amid debt buybacks, though integration diminishes prospects. Anthropic (4.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail on recent considerations for Q4 listings at sub-$400 billion valuations, with lower revenue scale versus SpaceX's projected $22–24 billion. Watch for SpaceX's April investor roadshow as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,620,250结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past week indicating an imminent filing of its prospectus—potentially this week—for a mid-June listing targeting a record $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and $50–75 billion raise, fueled by Starship progress, Starlink expansion, and its February acquisition of xAI to bolster orbital AI computing ambitions. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering sentiment around its pre-merger standalone potential amid debt buybacks, though integration diminishes prospects. Anthropic (4.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail on recent considerations for Q4 listings at sub-$400 billion valuations, with lower revenue scale versus SpaceX's projected $22–24 billion. Watch for SpaceX's April investor roadshow as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,620,250结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past week indicating an imminent filing of its prospectus—potentially this week—for a mid-June listing targeting a record $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and $50–75 billion raise, fueled by Starship progress, Starlink expansion, and its February acquisition of xAI to bolster orbital AI computing ambitions. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering sentiment around its pre-merger standalone potential amid debt buybacks, though integration diminishes prospects. Anthropic (4.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail on recent considerations for Q4 listings at sub-$400 billion valuations, with lower revenue scale versus SpaceX's projected $22–24 billion. Watch for SpaceX's April investor roadshow as the next catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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