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Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

Market icon

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$347,289 交易量

>99% chance
Polymarket

$347,289 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Donald Trump according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between September 9 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range.

If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the September 30 figures will not be considered.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Kamala Harris with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.
交易量
$347,289
结束日期
Sep 30, 2024
市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2024, 5:21 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Donald Trump according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between September 9 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the September 30 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Kamala Harris with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.

已提议结果: Yes

无争议

最终结果: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Donald Trump according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between September 9 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range.

If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the September 30 figures will not be considered.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Kamala Harris with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.
交易量
$347,289
结束日期
Sep 30, 2024
市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2024, 5:21 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Donald Trump according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between September 9 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the September 30 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Kamala Harris with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.

已提议结果: Yes

无争议

最终结果: Yes

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?" has generated $347.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 10, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.