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选举·House Primary

IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
选举·House Primary

IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Lindsay James 62%

Clint Twedt-Ball 29%

Kathy Dolter 11%

Guy Morgan 3.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Lindsay James 62%

Clint Twedt-Ball 29%

Kathy Dolter 11%

Guy Morgan 3.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Lindsay James

$1,984 交易量

62%

Clint Twedt-Ball

$985 交易量

29%

Kathy Dolter

$1,069 交易量

11%

Guy Morgan

$0 交易量

3%

Don Primus

$0 交易量

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the IA-02 Democratic primary favors state Rep. Lindsay James at 62% implied probability, driven by her incumbency advantage in the Iowa House, northeast Iowa base in Dubuque, and recent endorsement from the Iowa Teamsters on February 24, bolstering her appeal to labor voters in this working-class district. Clint Twedt-Ball holds second at 30% on his Cedar Rapids roots, pastoral background, and community leader endorsements announced February 14, positioning him as a credible challenger in the open-seat race vacated by Rep. Ashley Hinson's Senate bid. Kathy Dolter trails at 10% despite veteran credentials, while Guy Morgan and Don Primus lag below 5% with limited visibility. The Iowa Secretary of State finalized the five-candidate ballot March 17 ahead of the June 2 primary, with no public polls yet shifting dynamics amid DCCC interest in the district as a pickup opportunity.

Trader consensus in the IA-02 Democratic primary favors state Rep. Lindsay James at 62% implied probability, driven by her incumbency advantage in the Iowa House, northeast Iowa base in Dubuque, and recent endorsement from the Iowa Teamsters on February 24, bolstering her appeal to labor voters in this working-class district. Clint Twedt-Ball holds second at 30% on his Cedar Rapids roots, pastoral background, and community leader endorsements announced February 14, positioning him as a credible challenger in the open-seat race vacated by Rep. Ashley Hinson's Senate bid. Kathy Dolter trails at 10% despite veteran credentials, while Guy Morgan and Don Primus lag below 5% with limited visibility. The Iowa Secretary of State finalized the five-candidate ballot March 17 ahead of the June 2 primary, with no public polls yet shifting dynamics amid DCCC interest in the district as a pickup opportunity.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the IA-02 Democratic primary favors state Rep. Lindsay James at 62% implied probability, driven by her incumbency advantage in the Iowa House, northeast Iowa base in Dubuque, and recent endorsement from the Iowa Teamsters on February 24, bolstering her appeal to labor voters in this working-class district. Clint Twedt-Ball holds second at 30% on his Cedar Rapids roots, pastoral background, and community leader endorsements announced February 14, positioning him as a credible challenger in the open-seat race vacated by Rep. Ashley Hinson's Senate bid. Kathy Dolter trails at 10% despite veteran credentials, while Guy Morgan and Don Primus lag below 5% with limited visibility. The Iowa Secretary of State finalized the five-candidate ballot March 17 ahead of the June 2 primary, with no public polls yet shifting dynamics amid DCCC interest in the district as a pickup opportunity.

Trader consensus in the IA-02 Democratic primary favors state Rep. Lindsay James at 62% implied probability, driven by her incumbency advantage in the Iowa House, northeast Iowa base in Dubuque, and recent endorsement from the Iowa Teamsters on February 24, bolstering her appeal to labor voters in this working-class district. Clint Twedt-Ball holds second at 30% on his Cedar Rapids roots, pastoral background, and community leader endorsements announced February 14, positioning him as a credible challenger in the open-seat race vacated by Rep. Ashley Hinson's Senate bid. Kathy Dolter trails at 10% despite veteran credentials, while Guy Morgan and Don Primus lag below 5% with limited visibility. The Iowa Secretary of State finalized the five-candidate ballot March 17 ahead of the June 2 primary, with no public polls yet shifting dynamics amid DCCC interest in the district as a pickup opportunity.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Lindsay James"，概率为 62%，其次是"Clint Twedt-Ball"，概率为 28%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 62¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 62%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Feb 25, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"的当前领先者是"Lindsay James"，概率为 62%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 62%。紧随其后的结果是"Clint Twedt-Ball"，概率为 28%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。