Incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee leads trader consensus at 80.3% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his 46%-44% edge over veteran Rep. Al Green in the March 3 primary despite Green's long incumbency. Pre-primary polling, such as a February Houston Public Media survey showing Menefee ahead 52%-28%, underscored his momentum from a recent special election victory amid redistricting that pitted the two Democrats against each other in this safe blue Houston district. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports reveal Menefee raising $1 million—$600,000 post-February—outpacing Green, who loaned himself $200,000, while endorsements like Rep. LaSimba Gray-Simmons' bolster his position. Eliminated primary challengers Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards trail at negligible odds. Early voting begins soon, with turnout key in this low-visibility runoff.