In South Carolina's open 1st Congressional District Republican primary on June 9, state Rep. Mark Smith holds a trader consensus edge at 48.5% implied probability, driven by his legislative incumbency advantage and a narrow win in an April 16 straw poll (34% to Alex Pelbath's 29.5%) among Berkeley and Dorchester County GOP members at a candidate forum. Pelbath, a retired Air Force Lt. Col. who piloted the final U.S. evacuation flight from Kabul, trails at 26.5% on his military credentials and Trump-aligned appeal to the conservative base. The crowded field, finalized after March 30 filing deadline, fragments votes behind leaders like Sam McCown (12.5%), with upcoming debates and endorsements poised to influence the closely contested race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于马克·史密斯 49%
Alex Pelbath 27%
Sam McCown 13%
杰伊·拜亚斯 6.7%
最新
最新
2026-06-09
马克·史密斯
49%
Alex Pelbath
27%
Sam McCown
13%
杰伊·拜亚斯
7%
Jack Ellison
5%
珍妮·科斯塔·霍尼卡特
4%
贾斯汀·迈尔斯
1%
Logan Cunningham
1%
丹·布朗
<1%
马克·史密斯 49%
Alex Pelbath 27%
Sam McCown 13%
杰伊·拜亚斯 6.7%
最新
最新
2026-06-09
马克·史密斯
$1,813 交易量
49%
Alex Pelbath
$1,452 交易量
27%
Sam McCown
$1,046 交易量
13%
杰伊·拜亚斯
$444 交易量
7%
Jack Ellison
$504 交易量
5%
珍妮·科斯塔·霍尼卡特
$461 交易量
4%
贾斯汀·迈尔斯
$529 交易量
1%
Logan Cunningham
$664 交易量
1%
丹·布朗
$437 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In South Carolina's open 1st Congressional District Republican primary on June 9, state Rep. Mark Smith holds a trader consensus edge at 48.5% implied probability, driven by his legislative incumbency advantage and a narrow win in an April 16 straw poll (34% to Alex Pelbath's 29.5%) among Berkeley and Dorchester County GOP members at a candidate forum. Pelbath, a retired Air Force Lt. Col. who piloted the final U.S. evacuation flight from Kabul, trails at 26.5% on his military credentials and Trump-aligned appeal to the conservative base. The crowded field, finalized after March 30 filing deadline, fragments votes behind leaders like Sam McCown (12.5%), with upcoming debates and endorsements poised to influence the closely contested race.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$7,350结束日期
2026-06-09市场开放时间
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In South Carolina's open 1st Congressional District Republican primary on June 9, state Rep. Mark Smith holds a trader consensus edge at 48.5% implied probability, driven by his legislative incumbency advantage and a narrow win in an April 16 straw poll (34% to Alex Pelbath's 29.5%) among Berkeley and Dorchester County GOP members at a candidate forum. Pelbath, a retired Air Force Lt. Col. who piloted the final U.S. evacuation flight from Kabul, trails at 26.5% on his military credentials and Trump-aligned appeal to the conservative base. The crowded field, finalized after March 30 filing deadline, fragments votes behind leaders like Sam McCown (12.5%), with upcoming debates and endorsements poised to influence the closely contested race.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$7,350结束日期
2026-06-09市场开放时间
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In South Carolina's open 1st Congressional District Republican primary on June 9, state Rep. Mark Smith holds a trader consensus edge at 48.5% implied probability, driven by his legislative incumbency advantage and a narrow win in an April 16 straw poll (34% to Alex Pelbath's 29.5%) among Berkeley and Dorchester County GOP members at a candidate forum. Pelbath, a retired Air Force Lt. Col. who piloted the final U.S. evacuation flight from Kabul, trails at 26.5% on his military credentials and Trump-aligned appeal to the conservative base. The crowded field, finalized after March 30 filing deadline, fragments votes behind leaders like Sam McCown (12.5%), with upcoming debates and endorsements poised to influence the closely contested race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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