Mark Smith holds a commanding lead in the June 9 Republican primary for South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, an open seat following incumbent Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial bid, with traders assigning him an 88 percent implied probability. His position stems from superior fundraising—nearly $727,000 raised and $548,000 cash on hand as of the most recent quarter—combined with his record as a sitting state representative and a victory in an April GOP forum straw poll where he captured 34 percent support ahead of Alex Pelbath. Pelbath, a commercial pilot with military aviation experience, trails at roughly 9.5 percent amid lower fundraising totals near $366,000. The remaining candidates trail further due to limited visibility and resources, with no major developments in the final weeks shifting the established fundraising and polling hierarchy ahead of the primary.