Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 posts on X in March 2026 at 47% implied probability, reflecting his recent high-volume posting patterns amid heightened public engagement. Historical data shows Musk averaging 1000-1500 monthly posts in active periods, with spikes above 2000 during key events like the 2024 U.S. election cycle, where November volumes surpassed 1400. Recent developments, including his advisory role in the incoming Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and ongoing X platform ownership, suggest sustained activity levels, as traders price in potential announcements, policy discussions, and real-time interactions boosting output. Lower ranges trail due to occasional quieter months tied to travel or focus shifts, though no major slowdown indicators exist currently.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1400+ 46.9%
1360-1399 21.0%
1320-1359 11.3%
1280-1319 10.1%
$2,875,051 交易量
$2,875,051 交易量
840-879
<1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
2%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
11%
1360-1399
18%
1400+
47%
1400+ 46.9%
1360-1399 21.0%
1320-1359 11.3%
1280-1319 10.1%
$2,875,051 交易量
$2,875,051 交易量
840-879
<1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
2%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
11%
1360-1399
18%
1400+
47%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间: Jan 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 posts on X in March 2026 at 47% implied probability, reflecting his recent high-volume posting patterns amid heightened public engagement. Historical data shows Musk averaging 1000-1500 monthly posts in active periods, with spikes above 2000 during key events like the 2024 U.S. election cycle, where November volumes surpassed 1400. Recent developments, including his advisory role in the incoming Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and ongoing X platform ownership, suggest sustained activity levels, as traders price in potential announcements, policy discussions, and real-time interactions boosting output. Lower ranges trail due to occasional quieter months tied to travel or focus shifts, though no major slowdown indicators exist currently.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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