Market icon

ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

Market icon

ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

$0.00 交易量

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 交易量

Polymarket

3 月 18 日

$0 交易量

否

3月19日

$0 交易量

是

3月20日

$0 交易量

是

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
交易量
$0
结束日期
Mar 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Mar 18, 2026, 3:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

ChatGPT's unyielding dominance as the top free app in the US Apple App Store, with over 100 consecutive days at #1 since May 2024, anchors trader consensus at low implied probabilities for dethronement soon. Recent OpenAI updates like advanced voice mode and GPT-4o mini integration have spiked daily active users and downloads, fending off challengers such as Google Gemini (hovering top 10) and Perplexity AI amid intensifying large language model competition. Non-AI threats like Temu persist seasonally, but Apple Intelligence's iOS 18.1 rollout—integrating ChatGPT directly into Siri—could further entrench it. Watch holiday download surges and Q4 earnings for volatility, as sustained streaks often precede slips.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 3 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"3月19日"，概率为 100%，其次是"3月20日"，概率为 100%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Mar 18, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 3 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?"的当前领先者是"3月19日"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"3月20日"，概率为 100%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。