Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized, driven by IBGE's March 3 confirmation of 2025's deceleration to 2.3% overall with Q4 at just 0.1%, signaling persistent high Selic rate drag despite Copom's cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18 amid Middle East oil shocks and sticky inflation. Mixed early-quarter indicators bolster this positioning: January IBC-Br rose 0.8% month-on-month to a one-year high, but February manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.3 in contraction territory. The nearby 20.5% odds on below 0.7% reflect downside risks from weakening industrial sentiment, while Banco Central Focus survey holds 2026 full-year growth at 1.83%; watch April IBC-Br for resolution clues.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 21%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,633 交易量
$14,633 交易量
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
21%
0.7%–1.0%
10%
1.1%–1.4%
11%
1.5%–1.8%
37%
1.9%–2.2%
14%
2.3%–2.6%
14%
≥2.7%
9%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 21%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,633 交易量
$14,633 交易量
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$13,163 交易量
21%
0.7%–1.0%
$10 交易量
10%
1.1%–1.4%
$5 交易量
11%
1.5%–1.8%
$227 交易量
37%
1.9%–2.2%
$63 交易量
14%
2.3%–2.6%
$10 交易量
14%
≥2.7%
$1,155 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized, driven by IBGE's March 3 confirmation of 2025's deceleration to 2.3% overall with Q4 at just 0.1%, signaling persistent high Selic rate drag despite Copom's cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18 amid Middle East oil shocks and sticky inflation. Mixed early-quarter indicators bolster this positioning: January IBC-Br rose 0.8% month-on-month to a one-year high, but February manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.3 in contraction territory. The nearby 20.5% odds on below 0.7% reflect downside risks from weakening industrial sentiment, while Banco Central Focus survey holds 2026 full-year growth at 1.83%; watch April IBC-Br for resolution clues.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
交易量
$14,633结束日期
May 29, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized, driven by IBGE's March 3 confirmation of 2025's deceleration to 2.3% overall with Q4 at just 0.1%, signaling persistent high Selic rate drag despite Copom's cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18 amid Middle East oil shocks and sticky inflation. Mixed early-quarter indicators bolster this positioning: January IBC-Br rose 0.8% month-on-month to a one-year high, but February manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.3 in contraction territory. The nearby 20.5% odds on below 0.7% reflect downside risks from weakening industrial sentiment, while Banco Central Focus survey holds 2026 full-year growth at 1.83%; watch April IBC-Br for resolution clues.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
交易量
$14,633结束日期
May 29, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized, driven by IBGE's March 3 confirmation of 2025's deceleration to 2.3% overall with Q4 at just 0.1%, signaling persistent high Selic rate drag despite Copom's cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18 amid Middle East oil shocks and sticky inflation. Mixed early-quarter indicators bolster this positioning: January IBC-Br rose 0.8% month-on-month to a one-year high, but February manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.3 in contraction territory. The nearby 20.5% odds on below 0.7% reflect downside risks from weakening industrial sentiment, while Banco Central Focus survey holds 2026 full-year growth at 1.83%; watch April IBC-Br for resolution clues.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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