Market icon
科技·Elon Musk

特斯拉會在6月30日前在加州推出機器人計程車嗎？

Market icon
科技·Elon Musk

特斯拉會在6月30日前在加州推出機器人計程車嗎？

6月 30

6月 30

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$78,559 交易量

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$78,559 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87% implied probability to "No" for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the company's failure to secure essential regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Recent disclosures confirm Tesla has logged zero autonomous test miles in the state during 2025, far short of the 50,000 miles required under upcoming rules, and has not applied for driverless deployment permits despite Elon Musk's public optimism. Current Bay Area operations, including expansions to Marina Del Rey, operate under Level 2 supervised chauffeur permits with human drivers, not true unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) robotaxi service. While Tesla advances driverless robotaxis in less stringent Texas markets like Austin—with remote human interventions occasionally needed—California's rigorous safety reporting and transparency mandates pose formidable barriers. Key catalysts ahead include any belated permit filings or FSD v14+ demonstrations, though timelines suggest delays into 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.

Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$78,559
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87% implied probability to "No" for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the company's failure to secure essential regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Recent disclosures confirm Tesla has logged zero autonomous test miles in the state during 2025, far short of the 50,000 miles required under upcoming rules, and has not applied for driverless deployment permits despite Elon Musk's public optimism. Current Bay Area operations, including expansions to Marina Del Rey, operate under Level 2 supervised chauffeur permits with human drivers, not true unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) robotaxi service. While Tesla advances driverless robotaxis in less stringent Texas markets like Austin—with remote human interventions occasionally needed—California's rigorous safety reporting and transparency mandates pose formidable barriers. Key catalysts ahead include any belated permit filings or FSD v14+ demonstrations, though timelines suggest delays into 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.

Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$78,559
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"特斯拉會在6月30日前在加州推出機器人計程車嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "特斯拉會在6月30日前於加州推出機器人計程車嗎？" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "特斯拉會在6月30日前在加州推出機器人計程車嗎？" has generated $78.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "特斯拉會在6月30日前在加州推出機器人計程車嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "特斯拉會在6月30日前在加州推出機器人計程車嗎？" is "特斯拉會在6月30日前於加州推出機器人計程車嗎？" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "特斯拉會在6月30日前在加州推出機器人計程車嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.