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科技·大型科技公司

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

Market icon
科技·大型科技公司

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

6月 30

6月 30

25% 機率
Polymarket
最新
25% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A leaked OpenAI capitalization table, published within the last day, explicitly lists CEO Sam Altman's equity stake as zero—TBD across all classes—confirming longstanding public reports and fueling trader consensus for a 63.5% market-implied probability of "No" by June 30. This revelation persists amid OpenAI's record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation and for-profit restructuring toward a potential IPO, yet no official announcements have materialized granting Altman ownership despite his pivotal role in securing capital and advancing large language models like upcoming "Spud." With roughly three months remaining, traders weigh historical nonprofit governance constraints against accelerating enterprise AI deployments and leadership shifts, including the AGI Deployment team's formation, as key barriers to a pre-deadline equity award.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A leaked OpenAI capitalization table, published within the last day, explicitly lists CEO Sam Altman's equity stake as zero—TBD across all classes—confirming longstanding public reports and fueling trader consensus for a 63.5% market-implied probability of "No" by June 30. This revelation persists amid OpenAI's record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation and for-profit restructuring toward a potential IPO, yet no official announcements have materialized granting Altman ownership despite his pivotal role in securing capital and advancing large language models like upcoming "Spud." With roughly three months remaining, traders weigh historical nonprofit governance constraints against accelerating enterprise AI deployments and leadership shifts, including the AGI Deployment team's formation, as key barriers to a pre-deadline equity award.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 37% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 37¢, the market collectively assigns a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 12, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?" is 37% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.