Amid the US-Israel airstrikes on Iran that began February 28, 2026, France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a defensive posture, deploying ships, planes, and assets to Cyprus and the Gulf while denying airspace access to US operations, as reported March 31. Joint E3 statements from early March condemned Iranian attacks on regional allies but emphasized proportionate defensive measures over offensive strikes, with no such actions executed to date. Recent UK-led talks on April 2 with over 40 nations focused on diplomatically pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing trader consensus at 94.5% "No" probability. Direct European strikes remain unlikely absent major Iranian escalation against NATO interests or European shipping, given domestic political constraints and de-escalation priorities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$576,042 交易量
$576,042 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$576,042 交易量
$576,042 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel airstrikes on Iran that began February 28, 2026, France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a defensive posture, deploying ships, planes, and assets to Cyprus and the Gulf while denying airspace access to US operations, as reported March 31. Joint E3 statements from early March condemned Iranian attacks on regional allies but emphasized proportionate defensive measures over offensive strikes, with no such actions executed to date. Recent UK-led talks on April 2 with over 40 nations focused on diplomatically pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing trader consensus at 94.5% "No" probability. Direct European strikes remain unlikely absent major Iranian escalation against NATO interests or European shipping, given domestic political constraints and de-escalation priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
交易量
$576,042結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel airstrikes on Iran that began February 28, 2026, France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a defensive posture, deploying ships, planes, and assets to Cyprus and the Gulf while denying airspace access to US operations, as reported March 31. Joint E3 statements from early March condemned Iranian attacks on regional allies but emphasized proportionate defensive measures over offensive strikes, with no such actions executed to date. Recent UK-led talks on April 2 with over 40 nations focused on diplomatically pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing trader consensus at 94.5% "No" probability. Direct European strikes remain unlikely absent major Iranian escalation against NATO interests or European shipping, given domestic political constraints and de-escalation priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$576,042結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel airstrikes on Iran that began February 28, 2026, France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a defensive posture, deploying ships, planes, and assets to Cyprus and the Gulf while denying airspace access to US operations, as reported March 31. Joint E3 statements from early March condemned Iranian attacks on regional allies but emphasized proportionate defensive measures over offensive strikes, with no such actions executed to date. Recent UK-led talks on April 2 with over 40 nations focused on diplomatically pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing trader consensus at 94.5% "No" probability. Direct European strikes remain unlikely absent major Iranian escalation against NATO interests or European shipping, given domestic political constraints and de-escalation priorities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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