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維克多·歐爾班在2026年12月31日前出局？

Market icon

維克多·歐爾班在2026年12月31日前出局？

是

72% 機率
Polymarket

$75,899 交易量

是

72% 機率
Polymarket

$75,899 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 71.5% chance of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting office by year-end, driven by recent polls showing Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party surging ahead of Orbán's Fidesz ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Independent surveys like 21 Kutatóközpont (March 23–28: Tisza 56%, Fidesz 37%) and Závecz Research (March 24–28: Tisza 51%, Fidesz 38%) indicate widening leads of 13–19 points among decided voters, reflecting voter discontent over economic stagnation, EU fund disputes, and corruption allegations. Though Fidesz benefits from a district-based electoral system favoring incumbents, the opposition's momentum—bolstered by youth turnout and undecideds tilting anti-Fidesz—has narrowed historical advantages, heightening risks of a government change.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$75,899
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 71.5% chance of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting office by year-end, driven by recent polls showing Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party surging ahead of Orbán's Fidesz ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Independent surveys like 21 Kutatóközpont (March 23–28: Tisza 56%, Fidesz 37%) and Závecz Research (March 24–28: Tisza 51%, Fidesz 38%) indicate widening leads of 13–19 points among decided voters, reflecting voter discontent over economic stagnation, EU fund disputes, and corruption allegations. Though Fidesz benefits from a district-based electoral system favoring incumbents, the opposition's momentum—bolstered by youth turnout and undecideds tilting anti-Fidesz—has narrowed historical advantages, heightening risks of a government change.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$75,899
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"維克多·歐爾班在2026年12月31日前出局？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "歐爾班·維克多會在2026年12月31日之前下台嗎？" at 72%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "維克多·歐爾班在2026年12月31日前出局？" has generated $75.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "維克多·歐爾班在2026年12月31日前出局？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "維克多·歐爾班在2026年12月31日前出局？" is "歐爾班·維克多會在2026年12月31日之前下台嗎？" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "維克多·歐爾班在2026年12月31日前出局？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.