Amid heightened US-Cuba tensions from the Trump administration's oil blockade since February—triggering Cuban blackouts, shortages, and President Díaz-Canel's March 22 announcement of military preparations for potential aggression—trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% for a 2026 military clash. Recent de-escalatory signals include Cuba's April 3 release of 2,010 prisoners as a "sovereign gesture" during bilateral talks, where Havana outlined economic cooperation roadmaps despite US demands for leadership changes. Russian oil arrivals have eased the crisis, and no verified troop deployments or incidents have materialized, reflecting diplomacy over escalation in this maximum-pressure foreign policy campaign. Ongoing negotiations and historical aversion to direct conflict underpin the odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$63,088 交易量
$63,088 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$63,088 交易量
$63,088 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid heightened US-Cuba tensions from the Trump administration's oil blockade since February—triggering Cuban blackouts, shortages, and President Díaz-Canel's March 22 announcement of military preparations for potential aggression—trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% for a 2026 military clash. Recent de-escalatory signals include Cuba's April 3 release of 2,010 prisoners as a "sovereign gesture" during bilateral talks, where Havana outlined economic cooperation roadmaps despite US demands for leadership changes. Russian oil arrivals have eased the crisis, and no verified troop deployments or incidents have materialized, reflecting diplomacy over escalation in this maximum-pressure foreign policy campaign. Ongoing negotiations and historical aversion to direct conflict underpin the odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$63,088結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid heightened US-Cuba tensions from the Trump administration's oil blockade since February—triggering Cuban blackouts, shortages, and President Díaz-Canel's March 22 announcement of military preparations for potential aggression—trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% for a 2026 military clash. Recent de-escalatory signals include Cuba's April 3 release of 2,010 prisoners as a "sovereign gesture" during bilateral talks, where Havana outlined economic cooperation roadmaps despite US demands for leadership changes. Russian oil arrivals have eased the crisis, and no verified troop deployments or incidents have materialized, reflecting diplomacy over escalation in this maximum-pressure foreign policy campaign. Ongoing negotiations and historical aversion to direct conflict underpin the odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$63,088結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid heightened US-Cuba tensions from the Trump administration's oil blockade since February—triggering Cuban blackouts, shortages, and President Díaz-Canel's March 22 announcement of military preparations for potential aggression—trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% for a 2026 military clash. Recent de-escalatory signals include Cuba's April 3 release of 2,010 prisoners as a "sovereign gesture" during bilateral talks, where Havana outlined economic cooperation roadmaps despite US demands for leadership changes. Russian oil arrivals have eased the crisis, and no verified troop deployments or incidents have materialized, reflecting diplomacy over escalation in this maximum-pressure foreign policy campaign. Ongoing negotiations and historical aversion to direct conflict underpin the odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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