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科技·OpenAI

山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？

Market icon
科技·OpenAI

山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？

$41,542 交易量

2025-12-31
Polymarket

$41,542 交易量

Polymarket

2026 年 6 月 30 日

$15,195 交易量

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns negligible implied probabilities to Sam Altman serving jail time by the market's June 30, 2026 deadline, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges or investigations despite escalating civil litigation against OpenAI's CEO. The primary recent catalyst is Annie Altman's April 1, 2026 amended civil complaint alleging childhood sexual abuse by her brother from 1997–2006—a claim he vehemently denies—which follows a federal judge's prior dismissal of an earlier version, with no criminal referral. Additional pressures include Elon Musk's high-stakes OpenAI nonprofit breach lawsuit heading to jury deliberation soon and ChatGPT wrongful death suits, but these remain civil matters without DOJ or FTC criminal probes. OpenAI's AI dominance persists amid regulatory scrutiny on large language models, though upcoming civil rulings could fuel speculation without altering jail odds absent indictments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$41,542
結束日期
2025-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 6, 2025, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns negligible implied probabilities to Sam Altman serving jail time by the market's June 30, 2026 deadline, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges or investigations despite escalating civil litigation against OpenAI's CEO. The primary recent catalyst is Annie Altman's April 1, 2026 amended civil complaint alleging childhood sexual abuse by her brother from 1997–2006—a claim he vehemently denies—which follows a federal judge's prior dismissal of an earlier version, with no criminal referral. Additional pressures include Elon Musk's high-stakes OpenAI nonprofit breach lawsuit heading to jury deliberation soon and ChatGPT wrongful death suits, but these remain civil matters without DOJ or FTC criminal probes. OpenAI's AI dominance persists amid regulatory scrutiny on large language models, though upcoming civil rulings could fuel speculation without altering jail odds absent indictments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$41,542
結束日期
2025-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 6, 2025, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026 年 6 月 30 日" at 3%, followed by "2025年12月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？" has generated $41.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 7, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？" is "2026 年 6 月 30 日" at just 3%, with "2025年12月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.