Trader consensus favors Juntos por el Perú (JP) at 58.7% implied probability to win the most seats in Peru's new 60-seat Senate, elected April 12 via a mixed system of 30 national proportional seats and 30 from regional constituencies. Recent Ipsos/Perú21 polls from March 21-22 show JP leading voting simulations at 14.6% (valid votes), edging Alianza para el Progreso (APP) at 13.2% and Fuerza Popular (FP) at 9.6%, amid extreme fragmentation, high undecided rates (up to 39%), and no party exceeding 15%. This narrow edge, reinforced by prior Datum surveys (e.g., March 13-17: JP 8.2% vs. APP 7.3%), positions JP for plurality under d'Hondt allocation, though final campaigning and turnout could boost challengers like FP, RP, or APP in battleground regions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於JP 58.6%
人民力量 15%
進步聯盟（APP） 14%
RP 13%
$10,237 交易量
$10,237 交易量
Apr 12, 2026
JP
59%
人民力量
15%
進步聯盟（APP）
14%
RP
13%
AvP
4%
SP
3%
PL
3%
PP
1%
AP
1%
JP 58.6%
人民力量 15%
進步聯盟（APP） 14%
RP 13%
$10,237 交易量
$10,237 交易量
Apr 12, 2026
JP
$4,763 交易量
59%
人民力量
$804 交易量
15%
進步聯盟（APP）
$975 交易量
14%
RP
$698 交易量
13%
AvP
$980 交易量
4%
SP
$451 交易量
3%
PL
$446 交易量
3%
PP
$658 交易量
1%
AP
$462 交易量
1%
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus favors Juntos por el Perú (JP) at 58.7% implied probability to win the most seats in Peru's new 60-seat Senate, elected April 12 via a mixed system of 30 national proportional seats and 30 from regional constituencies. Recent Ipsos/Perú21 polls from March 21-22 show JP leading voting simulations at 14.6% (valid votes), edging Alianza para el Progreso (APP) at 13.2% and Fuerza Popular (FP) at 9.6%, amid extreme fragmentation, high undecided rates (up to 39%), and no party exceeding 15%. This narrow edge, reinforced by prior Datum surveys (e.g., March 13-17: JP 8.2% vs. APP 7.3%), positions JP for plurality under d'Hondt allocation, though final campaigning and turnout could boost challengers like FP, RP, or APP in battleground regions.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
交易量
$10,237結束日期
Apr 12, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus favors Juntos por el Perú (JP) at 58.7% implied probability to win the most seats in Peru's new 60-seat Senate, elected April 12 via a mixed system of 30 national proportional seats and 30 from regional constituencies. Recent Ipsos/Perú21 polls from March 21-22 show JP leading voting simulations at 14.6% (valid votes), edging Alianza para el Progreso (APP) at 13.2% and Fuerza Popular (FP) at 9.6%, amid extreme fragmentation, high undecided rates (up to 39%), and no party exceeding 15%. This narrow edge, reinforced by prior Datum surveys (e.g., March 13-17: JP 8.2% vs. APP 7.3%), positions JP for plurality under d'Hondt allocation, though final campaigning and turnout could boost challengers like FP, RP, or APP in battleground regions.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
交易量
$10,237結束日期
Apr 12, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Juntos por el Perú (JP) at 58.7% implied probability to win the most seats in Peru's new 60-seat Senate, elected April 12 via a mixed system of 30 national proportional seats and 30 from regional constituencies. Recent Ipsos/Perú21 polls from March 21-22 show JP leading voting simulations at 14.6% (valid votes), edging Alianza para el Progreso (APP) at 13.2% and Fuerza Popular (FP) at 9.6%, amid extreme fragmentation, high undecided rates (up to 39%), and no party exceeding 15%. This narrow edge, reinforced by prior Datum surveys (e.g., March 13-17: JP 8.2% vs. APP 7.3%), positions JP for plurality under d'Hondt allocation, though final campaigning and turnout could boost challengers like FP, RP, or APP in battleground regions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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