祕魯總統選舉獲勝者

Name: 祕魯總統選舉獲勝者
Start: 2025-12-16T20:20:08.258Z
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

祕魯總統選舉獲勝者 — 討論

j3ff04 · 2025-12-16T20:20:08.258Z

關於祕魯總統選舉獲勝者的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

政治·全球選舉

祕魯總統選舉獲勝者

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 37%

藤森惠子 16%

阿方索·洛佩斯·查烏 14.5%

羅伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米諾 13.4%

$3,834,034 交易量

Apr 12, 2026

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加

$476,330 交易量

37%

藤森惠子

$189,803 交易量

16%

阿方索·洛佩斯·查烏

$180,196 交易量

15%

羅伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米諾

$281,553 交易量

13%

卡洛斯·阿爾瓦雷斯

$89,532 交易量

喬治·涅托

$610,431 交易量

沃爾夫岡·格羅佐

$360,383 交易量

里卡多·貝爾蒙特

$128,393 交易量

喬治·福賽斯

$128,215 交易量

Yonhy Lescano

$140,896 交易量

恩里克·瓦爾德拉馬

$133,255 交易量

卡洛斯·埃斯帕

$127,811 交易量

梅西亞斯·格瓦拉

$66,454 交易量

<1%

瑪麗索·佩雷斯·特略

$147,634 交易量

<1%

馬里奧·維茲卡拉

$126,100 交易量

<1%

拉斐爾·貝勞恩德·廖薩

$116,578 交易量

<1%

塞薩爾·阿庫尼亞

$91,574 交易量

<1%

荷西·威廉斯

$55,644 交易量

<1%

弗拉迪米爾·塞龍

$113,143 交易量

<1%

羅貝托·奇亞布拉

$57,674 交易量

<1%

荷塞·盧納

$83,889 交易量

<1%

菲奧雷拉·莫利內利

$73,443 交易量

<1%

費爾南多·奧利維拉

$55,101 交易量

<1%

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 37%

藤森惠子 16%

阿方索·洛佩斯·查烏 14.5%

羅伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米諾 13.4%

$3,834,034 交易量

Apr 12, 2026

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加

$476,330 交易量

37%

藤森惠子

$189,803 交易量

16%

阿方索·洛佩斯·查烏

$180,196 交易量

15%

羅伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米諾

$281,553 交易量

13%

卡洛斯·阿爾瓦雷斯

$89,532 交易量

喬治·涅托

$610,431 交易量

沃爾夫岡·格羅佐

$360,383 交易量

里卡多·貝爾蒙特

$128,393 交易量

喬治·福賽斯

$128,215 交易量

Yonhy Lescano

$140,896 交易量

恩里克·瓦爾德拉馬

$133,255 交易量

卡洛斯·埃斯帕

$127,811 交易量

梅西亞斯·格瓦拉

$66,454 交易量

<1%

瑪麗索·佩雷斯·特略

$147,634 交易量

<1%

馬里奧·維茲卡拉

$126,100 交易量

<1%

拉斐爾·貝勞恩德·廖薩

$116,578 交易量

<1%

塞薩爾·阿庫尼亞

$91,574 交易量

<1%

荷西·威廉斯

$55,644 交易量

<1%

弗拉迪米爾·塞龍

$113,143 交易量

<1%

羅貝托·奇亞布拉

$57,674 交易量

<1%

荷塞·盧納

$83,889 交易量

<1%

菲奧雷拉·莫利內利

$73,443 交易量

<1%

費爾南多·奧利維拉

$55,101 交易量

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Rafael López Aliaga leads Polymarket odds for Peru's April 2026 presidential election at 36.5%, reflecting his surge in recent national polls like Ipsos and Datum surveys from late October, where he tops the fragmented field at 18-22% amid voter frustration over surging crime, corruption scandals, and President Dina Boluarte's 10% approval rating. Keiko Fujimori holds second at 16% on enduring name recognition from prior runs, while Alfonso López Chau (14.5%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (14.3%) gain from right-wing momentum in a first-round runoff system requiring over 50% or top-two advancement. No snap election materialized after Congress's recent proposal was vetoed, leaving the race defined by early polling trends and security-focused platforms, with trader consensus amplifying López Aliaga's edge despite uncertainties in coalition dynamics and turnout.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 26, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加" at 37%, followed by "藤森惠子" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" has generated $3.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" is "拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "藤森惠子" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $3.8 million traded on “祕魯總統選舉獲勝者,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 37¢ for "拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加" in the "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 37% chance that "拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 37¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 63¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 12, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" market has an active community of 480 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

祕魯總統選舉獲勝者

祕魯總統選舉獲勝者

規則

盤口背景

盤口背景

評論 (480)

頂級持倉者

持倉

動態

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者"?

What are the current odds for "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者"?

How will "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" be resolved?

Can I follow "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" without placing a trade?

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How do I start trading on "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者"?

What does a price of 37¢ for "拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加" mean?

When does the "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者" market close?

What are traders saying about "祕魯總統選舉獲勝者"?

What is Polymarket?